6.1 |
Development of the military options for an invasion of
Iraq
1327.
In their
second conversation Mr Straw told Secretary Powell
that:
“Following
the latest news from Turkey, we could provide an amphibious task
force
in the
South. We might also put in an armoured brigade in the
South.”502
1328.
Mr Straw
also cautioned that the armoured brigade would take an extra 45
days
to
arrive.
1329.
Mr Hoon
was advised on 30 December that it seemed increasingly
unlikely
ground
forces would be allowed to operate from Turkey and that the ground
forces
options
were under review.503
1330.
The US was
reviewing the military plan “and considering what role a UK
ground
force could
play in the South”. Mr Johnson stated:
“We had of
course offered the existing land package on the assumption that it
would
operate in
the North. Ministers have not endorsed any assumptions about a
possible
role in the
South, which is more likely to be for follow‑on, or aftermath,
tasks.”
1331.
Mr Hoon
was advised that, at present, there was “no clear role for any [of
the
options
being examined] in the South”; the UK needed “first to hear from
the US … what
possible
roles they may now envisage for UK land forces.
1332.
Mr Westmacott
advised on 31 December that despite a series of meetings
in
Christmas
week, there were still no decisions although the Turkish Parliament
had
approved
the renewal of the authority for US and UK aircraft to continue to
operate from
Incirlik
over the northern No‑Fly Zone.504
In his view
it was unlikely that Turkey would be
forthcoming
on Iraq during Mr Hoon’s planned meeting the following week.
Turkey was
likely to
wait until after Dr Blix’s report to the UN Security Council
on 27 January before
consulting
Parliament.
1333.
On 2 January
2003, Mr Westmacott advised that he had not detected
any
particular
hostility to a UK military presence: “The key point was that Turkey
would rather
not have
any of us.” Mr Hoon’s visit should help to clarify the
picture.505
502
Letter
Straw to Manning, 30 December 2002, ‘Iraq: Conversation with Colin
Powell, 30 December’.
503
Minute
Johnson to PS/Secretary of State [MOD], 30 December 2002, ‘Iraq:
Update’.
504
Telegram
483 Ankara to FCO London, 31 December 2002, ‘Iraq: More Turkish
Prevarication Despite
US
pressure’.
505
Telegram 1
Ankara to FCO London, 2 January 2003, ‘Iraq: Turkish
Options’.
371