6.1 |
Development of the military options for an invasion of
Iraq
1300.
Mr Johnson
alerted Mr Hoon to the potential need for early decisions
on
1301.
Mr Johnson
wrote that Package 3 was being reviewed in the light of
changes
in US force
plans. Adm Boyce, Gen Walker and Lt Gen Reith
recommended that an
option with
two UK brigades each with three battlegroups should be the
preferred option;
although it
would require 4,000‑5,000 more personnel than the “currently
endorsed
package of
28,000”, and a change to Op FRESCO plans.
1302.
Mr Hoon
was advised “we should have reached a conclusion on Turkey by
the
middle of
January”. An alternative option of deploying one brigade of four
battlegroups
to be
integrated within the US 4th Infantry Division had also been
identified. Planning
could be
calibrated to allow a switch to that option if the deployment of a
division was
ruled out.
1303.
The work on
possible options in the South was not addressed in the
minute.
1304.
In preparation
for a telephone conversation with Adm Boyce on 22
December,
Mr Watkins
sent Mr Hoon a handwritten minute setting out the background
to
Mr Johnson’s
minute, which had been received late on 20 December following a
meeting
between Adm
Boyce and Lt Gen Reith.491
1305.
Mr Watkins
advised that:
•
Mr Johnson’s
minute did not seek any decisions, but Adm Boyce was
“looking
for a
steer” on whether to call in staff over Christmas to prepare for
deployments
in the
first few days of January, “rather than mid‑January as currently
assumed”.
•
There was
“some suspicion about the provenance of the information about
US
intentions”,
which had come from CENTCOM. Mr Watkins’ own contacts
with
Secretary
Rumsfeld’s office suggested that political decisions about visible
US
actions had
not yet been taken. There was a risk, not for the first time, of
the UK
getting
ahead of the US Government’s position.
•
Deploying
equipment before the planned visit to Ankara risked “a
diplomatic
own goal”.
•
The UK
Government’s communications plan assumed a start date of 7
January.
•
Mr Blair
would be on holiday abroad until 5 January.
1306.
In a separate
minute produced by one of his Private Secretaries the
previous
evening,
Mr Hoon was advised that military “plans seem to be changing
very rapidly and
490
Minute
Johnson to PS/Sof S [MOD], 20 December 2002, ‘Iraq: Early
Decisions’.
491
Minute
(handwritten) Watkins to SofS [MOD], 21 December 2002, ‘Iraq: CDS
Phone Call:
22
December’.
367