6.1 |
Development of the military options for an invasion of
Iraq
1280.
The MOD was
“therefore” looking at alternatives, which would take account
of:
•
The scope
for releasing sufficient units from Op FRESCO to allow “Package
3
to be
reconfigured for operations in the North as a division of two
brigades”.
•
“Options
for embedding a single … brigade in a US division (North or
South)”.
•
Options for
the South where further work was needed to assess whether
an
armoured
formation could be delivered “within US timelines, and to
consider
alternatives
involving lighter forces”.
1281.
The MOD could
not be “fully confident” that it had “a conclusion on
these
choices”.
1282.
Annex G was a
copy of the 13 December SPG paper, ‘UK Military
Strategic
Thinking on
Iraq’, which identified the post‑conflict phase as strategically
decisive.
1283.
Sir David
commented to Mr Blair that not all of the information in
Mr Watkins’
letter of
20 December had “yet appeared in the Sunday
Telegraph”, which
carried a
story on 22
December that the Royal Marines would lead a sea‑borne invasion
of
1284.
Mr Hoon
had raised concerns about the leak with Sir Kevin Tebbit;
and
Mr Watkins
had asked the MOD to review – and prune back – its distribution
lists.487
1285.
Mr Hoon
was informed on 20 December that UK plans were being
reviewed
in the
light of changes in US plans and there might be a need for early
decisions.
1286.
The
military’s preferred option would be to deploy two UK brigades
for
the
northern option although that would require 4,000‑5,000 more
personnel and
changes to
Op FRESCO.
1287.
A “heavy”
brigade would not be able to arrive in the South until
mid‑April,
but would
have “particular utility for post‑conflict
operations”.
1288.
Mr Hoon
was reported to be reluctant to take any risks with Op
FRESCO.
1289.
Adm Boyce
discussed Iraq with General Joseph W Ralston,
Commander
EUCOM, on
19 December.488
1290.
Gen Ralston
indicated that planning activity in Turkey was being delayed
pending
receipt of
political clearance to proceed by the Turkish military.
Gen Ralston expected
486
Manuscript
comment Manning on Letter
Watkins to Manning, 20 December 2002, ‘Iraq: Christmas
Reading’.
487
Minute
Watkins to PS/PUS [MOD], 23 December 2002, ‘Sunday Telegraph
Article: 22 December 2002’.
488
Minute
MA/CDS to PS/SofS [MOD], 20 December 2002, ‘CDS visit to SHAPE –
EUCOM Issues’.
365