6.1 |
Development of the military options for an invasion of
Iraq
The JIC
Assessment, ‘Iraq: Regional Attitudes’, issued on 19 April 2002,
addressed
regional
attitudes to military action and how much support or opposition
they might offer
(see
Section 3.3).292
It stated
that “Turkey, as
a NATO ally, would probably provide basing
if asked,
despite its reservations, […].”
The FCO
recognised that there could be difficulties with Turkey. In an
internal minute of
30 July
2002, Mr Ricketts wrote:
“Turkey
is a
special case. Would have to give active support for military
operation,
even if
only the use of the airfields. Quite possibly a much more direct
role. But the
timing is
exceptionally difficult: no Government until after 3 November. The
Cyprus
talks quite
likely to fail, leading to a major train wreck with the EU at
Copenhagen
[EU Summit
in December 2002]. The Turks are bound to use their
strategic
importance
on Iraq as leverage. The UK cannot deliver what the Turks will
want
from the EU
… The US … will have to work the Turkey case hard: it cannot be
left to
At the
request of the MOD, the JIC reconsidered the judgements in its 19
April
Assessment
on 5 August 2002.294
That is
addressed in Section 3.4.
In relation
to Turkey, the JIC judged:
“Turkey
would be willing to provide basing for a US‑led attack on
Iraq.”
The
Assessment stated:
“The
Turkish Government has been reluctant to see an attack on Iraq. […]
The exact
extent of
this Turkish help would have to be negotiated. Turkey would demand
to be
kept fully
informed of US planning […]”
The FCO and
Mr Peter Westmacott, British Ambassador to Turkey, exchanged
views on
whether or
not the UK should engage in direct talks with
Turkey.295
Mr Bowen
wrote to Sir David Manning:
“We
are not
committed
to the northern option and our early participation in talks
with
the Turks
may give the wrong impression.”296
Sir David
replied that he strongly agreed.297
A separate
manuscript comment recorded that Sir David had asked the MOD
to consult
him about
plans for consulting Turkey.298
292
JIC
Assessment, 19 April 2002, ‘Iraq: Regional Attitudes’.
293
Minute
Ricketts to Chaplin, 30 July 2002, ‘Iraq’.
294
JIC
Assessment, 5 August 2002, ‘Iraq: Regional Attitudes and Impact of
Military Action’.
295
Letter
Oakden to Westmacott, 30 September 2002, ‘Iraq/Turkey’; Letter
Westmacott to Oakden,
1 October
2002, ‘Iraq/Turkey’.
296
Manuscript
comment Bowen to Manning, 1 October 2002, on Letter Westmacott to
Oakden,
1 October
2002, ‘Iraq/Turkey’.
297
Manuscript
comment Manning to Bowen, 1 October 2002, on Letter Westmacott to
Oakden,
1 October
2002, ‘Iraq/Turkey’.
298
Manuscript
comment Bowen on Letter Oakden to Westmacott , 30 September 2002,
‘Iraq/Turkey’.
285