The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
division
including two square armoured brigades, and a light “Air
Assault
capable”
brigade.
584.
The SPG
advised that, in the absence of clear post‑conflict plans, the
potential
scale of
the UK military engagement remained unknown. In the worst case, the
UK
needed to
be prepared for “a substantial long‑term commitment”.
585.
The SPG’s
conclusions on post‑conflict issues are addressed in Section
6.4.
586.
The SPG
concluded that the “key military
question”
which had to be addressed
was: “Is
there a winning military concept and plan?”
587.
The paper set
out lists of the conditions that would need to be met for the
UK
to answer
yes, and the reasons why the UK should not offer to participate in
the
CENTCOM
plan.
588.
The Chiefs of
Staff met on 4 and 6 September, but no discussion of the
military
options for
Iraq is recorded in the minutes.235
589.
Sir David
Manning asked the MOD for advice in preparation for Mr Blair’s
meeting
with
President Bush at Camp David on 7 to 8 September.236
590.
An initial
draft of the advice, submitted by Dr Cholerton, described the
meeting at
Camp David
as “to discuss Iraq”, the possibility of an ultimatum to Iraq on
the return of
weapons
inspectors, and Mr Blair’s candid reference the previous day
to regime change
and the
planned publication of a dossier (see Section 3.4).237
591.
Dr Cholerton
advised that further work in PJHQ and Land Command
suggested
it might be
possible to generate “up to ‘division scale’ forces … 4 months
after an
overt
political decision” as well as HQ ARRC; and that the Chiefs of
Staff would look at
whether the
US military plan would deliver the UK’s desired end
state.
592.
Dr Cholerton
advised that Mr Blair “should be cautious in discussing UK’s
ability
to contribute
to military capability” with President Bush.
593.
Mr Hoon
requested further advice on the costs of the packages and the
number
of personnel
involved.238
235
Minutes, 4
September 2002, Chiefs of Staff meeting; Minutes, 6 September 2002,
Chiefs of Staff
meeting.
236
Minute
Williams to DG Op Pol, 4 September 2002, ‘Iraq – Update for the
Prime Minister’.
237
Minute
Cholerton to PS/Secretary of State [MOD], 4 September 2002,
‘Iraq’.
238
Minute
Cholerton to PS/Secretary of State [MOD], 5 September 2002,
‘Iraq’.
264