The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
170.
Following
Mr Blair’s visit to Crawford, Mr Hoon discussed Iraq with
Adm Boyce and
Sir Kevin
Tebbit on 8 April.90
171.
Mr Hoon
“emphasised that no
decisions had been taken on military action” but it
was
“important that No.10 and others understood the practical steps and
(additional)
costs which
would be involved”. Therefore as a “precaution against the
possibility that
military
action might have to be taken at some point in the future”,
exploratory work
should be
put in hand, conducted “on a very close hold”, to
provide:
•
“… a
clearer picture of the potential specific military options –
including the
possible UK
involvement”; this should indicate the “likely scales of effort
and
force
generation/deployment timelines”.
•
“Clarification
of what military capability we could deliver on the basis of the
…
budgets for
2002/03 and what more might be required to deliver the
options”
identified.
•
“Identification
of the additional specific equipment requirements
(UORs)
necessary
to deliver these options … Equipment – rather than personnel –
was
likely to
be on the critical path in terms of deployment
timelines.”
172.
Mr Hoon
asked to discuss the emerging findings and “the ‘think piece’”
the
following
week.
173.
On 12 April,
following consultation with Sir Kevin Tebbit and Adm Boyce,
Mr Webb
sent
Mr Hoon a think piece entitled “Bush and the War on
Terrorism”.91
Mr Webb’s
minute
provided formal advice on the possible scale of any UK military
contribution and
a draft
letter to Mr Blair.
174.
Mr Webb’s
paper explored potential end states for military action in Iraq in
the
context of
Mr Blair’s “commitment to regime change (‘if necessary and
justified’)” in his
speech at
College Station on 7 April.
•
“Commitment
on timing has been avoided and an expectation has
developed
that no
significant operation will be mounted while major violence
continues in
Israel/Palestine”.
•
“Both
Crawford and contacts with the Pentagon confirm that US thinking
has not
identified
either a successor or a constitutional restructuring to provide a
more
representational
regime:
{{“Various
ideas for replacements have been aired over the years and
none
so far look
convincing …”
90
Minute
Watkins to PSO/CDS & PS/PUS [MOD], 8 April 2002,
‘Iraq’.
91
Minute Webb
to PS/Secretary of State [MOD], 12 April 2002, ‘Bush and the War on
Terrorism’.
202