The Report of the Iraq Inquiry

723. Asked whether there had been a challenge to the intelligence and if he was

absolutely sure that there was not another way of explaining the material, Mr Blair told

the Inquiry:

“When you are Prime Minister and the JIC is giving this information, you have got to

rely on the people doing it, with experience and with commitment and integrity, as

they do. Of course, now, with the benefit of hindsight, we look back on the situation

differently.”294

724. Responding to a question about why there might have been an unwillingness to

conclude the intelligence had been misassessed, Sir John Scarlett told the Inquiry:

“I think … the situation in January and February 2003, when UNMOVIC were not

finding things, and so the reaction might have been: well, why is that? But the

reaction was: well it’s there. This just goes to show that UNMOVIC aren’t much use

and we will find it.”295

725. Mr Miller acknowledged that the 18 December 2002 Assessment of the Iraqi

declaration was “rooted in the intelligence view about the extent of his possession and

continuing programme”.296 If the Assessments Staff had known then what they knew

about the reliability of the intelligence reporting in July 2004, Mr Miller thought “there

would still have been some serious reservations … but that they would have been less

pronounced than they were at the time.”

726. Sir John Scarlett took a more cautious view, pointing out the nature of the

requirements on Iraq and its failure to address in the declaration that it had unilaterally

destroyed its agent stockpile in 1991 without telling anyone or that it had destroyed the

Al Hussein missiles in 1992. They had also said nothing about the work on missiles:

“So there would have been a whole series of points where the declaration would

have been found to be … not conforming with resolution 1441.”297

727. Sir John told the Inquiry that his:

“… own mindset … up until early March at least, was that intelligence was being

borne out by what was being found by UNMOVIC. My state of mind wasn’t: oh gosh,

UNMOVIC aren’t finding things, therefore there’s something big that is wrong.

“Now, if we had continued and had more time, and this hadn’t all come to an end in

the middle of March, of course that would have changed.”298

294 Public hearing, 2 February 2010, page 82.

295 Private hearing, 5 May 2010, page 36.

296 Private hearing, 5 May 2010, page 37.

297 Private hearing, 5 May 2010, pages 37-38.

298 Private hearing, 5 May 2010, page 39.

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