The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
•
The
reporting on which the assessment was based had “not
been
subsequently
substantiated by the ISG”.
“Intelligence
[also] indicates that chemical and biological munitions could
be
with military
units and ready for firing within 20-45 minutes” (JIC
Assessment,
9 September
2002).
•
The
reporting had been withdrawn.
“Iraq
has a chemical and biological weapons capability and Saddam
is
prepared to
use it” (JIC
Assessment, 9 September 2002).
“Saddam has
already taken the decision that all resources, including CBW,
be
used to
defend the regime from attack. One report states that Saddam
would
not use CBW
during the initial phase of any military campaign, but would
use
CBW once a
ground invasion of Iraq has begun” (paragraph
4, JIC Assessment,
9 September
2002).
“Intelligence
indicates that Saddam has identified Bahrain, Jordan,
Qatar,
Israel and
Kuwait as targets” (paragraph
6, JIC Assessment, 9 September 2002).
•
The
reporting specifically referred to in paragraph 4 had been
withdrawn;
as had the
report on which paragraph 6 was based. “However, other
intelligence
on Iraqi CBW programmes and activities, and on Israel
and
Kuwait as
possible targets, supported the Key Judgement and elements
of
the detail
quoted.”
•
The ISG
findings did “not support the JIC judgement that Saddam would
use
all
resources, including CBW”.
“Saddam …
might use CBW … against coalition forces, neighbouring
states and his
own people. Israel could be his first target” (JIC
Assessment,
6 December
2002).
•
Based on
Iraq’s actions pre-1991 and during the first Gulf Conflict,
the
judgement
would have remained a reasonable one although
reporting
which had
been used in compiling the Assessment had subsequently
been
withdrawn.
•
An
Assessments Staff Intelligence Update on 27 November 2002 referred
to
recent
intelligence that Saddam Hussein had reiterated his intention to
use
CBW to
defend his regime “if allied forces approached Baghdad, if
Basra,
Kirkuk or
Mosul fell to Allied control, or if Iraqi units rebelled”. He
“would wait
and see how
neighbouring countries reacted to an allied attack, and
whether
they
allowed their territory to be used by Allied forces, before
deciding
whether to
use CBW against them”. His initial targets would be
“Israel,
Kuwait and
Jordan”. That reporting was withdrawn.
404