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The Report of the Iraq Inquiry
The reporting on which the assessment was based had “not been
subsequently substantiated by the ISG”.
Intelligence [also] indicates that chemical and biological munitions could be
with military units and ready for firing within 20-45 minutes” (JIC Assessment,
9 September 2002).
The reporting had been withdrawn.
Iraq has a chemical and biological weapons capability and Saddam is
prepared to use it” (JIC Assessment, 9 September 2002).
Saddam has already taken the decision that all resources, including CBW, be
used to defend the regime from attack. One report states that Saddam would
not use CBW during the initial phase of any military campaign, but would use
CBW once a ground invasion of Iraq has begun” (paragraph 4, JIC Assessment,
9 September 2002).
Intelligence indicates that Saddam has identified Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar,
Israel and Kuwait as targets” (paragraph 6, JIC Assessment, 9 September 2002).
The reporting specifically referred to in paragraph 4 had been withdrawn;
as had the report on which paragraph 6 was based. “However, other
intelligence on Iraqi CBW programmes and activities, and on Israel and
Kuwait as possible targets, supported the Key Judgement and elements of
the detail quoted.”
The ISG findings did “not support the JIC judgement that Saddam would use
all resources, including CBW”.
Saddam … might use CBW … against coalition forces, neighbouring
states and his own people. Israel could be his first target” (JIC Assessment,
6 December 2002).
Based on Iraq’s actions pre-1991 and during the first Gulf Conflict, the
judgement would have remained a reasonable one although reporting
which had been used in compiling the Assessment had subsequently been
withdrawn.
An Assessments Staff Intelligence Update on 27 November 2002 referred to
recent intelligence that Saddam Hussein had reiterated his intention to use
CBW to defend his regime “if allied forces approached Baghdad, if Basra,
Kirkuk or Mosul fell to Allied control, or if Iraqi units rebelled”. He “would wait
and see how neighbouring countries reacted to an allied attack, and whether
they allowed their territory to be used by Allied forces, before deciding
whether to use CBW against them”. His initial targets would be “Israel,
Kuwait and Jordan”. That reporting was withdrawn.
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