The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
643.
The Assessment
stated:
“The ISG
judged that Saddam wanted to recreate Iraq’s WMD capability, but
only
after
sanctions were removed and the economy had stabilised. He aspired
to
develop a
nuclear capability in an incremental fashion, and intended to focus
on
ballistic
missile and tactical warfare capabilities. The ISG found that Iran
was the
prime
motivator for this policy, with a secondary requirement to balance
Israel and
have
influence in the Arab world.”
644.
Against that
background, and validation work on the intelligence on which
its
judgements
had been based, the JIC reviewed its 2002 Assessments of Iraq’s
activities:
“Iraq
is pursuing a nuclear weapons programme. But it will not be able
to
indigenously
produce a nuclear weapon while sanctions remain in
place,
unless
suitable fissile material is purchased from abroad”
(CIG Assessment,
15 March
2002).
•
The
judgement “was wrong in that Iraq was not pursuing a nuclear
weapons
programme,
but correct on Iraq’s nuclear ambitions and its inability
to
produce a
nuclear weapon under sanctions”.
•
“The ISG
found no indigenous nuclear production capability or a
reconstitution
of effort to produce nuclear weapons.”
•
“It did
find evidence of efforts to preserve nuclear related
intellectual
capabilities
post 1991, with the probable intention of restarting a
nuclear
programme
once sanctions ended …”
•
“Intelligence
dated June 2002 identified Iraqi interest in seeking uranium
ore
from Niger.
The ISG has contested this, but it has not been possible for
the
UK to share
the relevant intelligence […] This intelligence
stands.”
“Iraq
retains up to 20 Al Hussein ballistic missiles”
(CIG Assessment,
15 March
2002).
•
The
judgement had “not been substantiated”.
•
“The ISG
judges that Iraq probably did not retain any SCUD-variant
missiles
after 1991
…”
“Iraq
has begun development of medium range ballistic missiles over
1000km”
(CIG
Assessment, 15 March 2002).
•
The
judgement “had been partly substantiated: the ISG found that Iraq
had
authorised
its scientists to develop missiles with ranges in excess of
…
150km …
and had designs for missiles with ranges up to
1000km”.
“Iraq
may retain some stocks of chemical agents … Iraq could
produce
significant
quantities of mustard within weeks, significant quantities of
sarin
402