4.3 | Iraq WMD assessments, October 2002 to March 2003

627. Reporting from the sourcing chain which had produced the “45 minutes”

report was withdrawn on 28 September.

628. On 28 September, a senior SIS officer wrote to Mr Straw’s Private Office formally

withdrawing all the reporting from the sourcing chain that had produced the 45 minute

report.251 There were concerns that the source had coached the sub-source; that the

sub-source had fabricated reports; and that the source might not have accurately

reported the information from the sub-source.

629. The SIS officer stated that the assessment of the impact of withdrawing the

reporting provided by Mr Dowse on 18 June still stood.

630. At the JIC meeting on 29 September, Mr Ehrman noted that SIS had circulated a

letter withdrawing one of the lines of reporting on Iraq’s WMD:

“It would be drawn to … [Mr Straw’s and Mr Blair’s] attention. After the work of the

ISG was concluded, and SIS had completed validation of the sources, it would be

necessary to review the JIC Assessments circulated in the run-up to the Iraq war.

The results would be discussed at a future JIC meeting.”252

631. SIS formally withdrew the reporting from Curve Ball on 29 September 2004.

632. On 29 September, the same senior SIS officer wrote to Mr Straw’s Private Office

stating that SIS had concluded that all the reporting from Curve Ball should formally be

withdrawn.253 SIS and the DIS had reached a common position on the technical aspects

of the reporting in May 2004, which had been submitted to the Butler Review. They

continued to assess that the transportable production system described in the reporting

was compatible with BW production.

633. The senior SIS officer also stated:

• It was now not clear whether Curve Ball had ever told the liaison service whose

control he was under that he believed the system was BW-related.

• Substantial UK and ISG efforts to collect significant collateral to conclude that

the system was BW-related had produced little that was concrete.

• There were “irreconcilable inconsistencies” in Curve Ball’s claims for the

production process which meant that, notwithstanding its scientific coherence,

SIS “now have some doubts about the overall veracity” of the story.

• Curve Ball had been a very difficult defector to handle and access to Curve Ball

had proved challenging.

251 Minute [senior SIS officer] to [Private Secretary/FCO], 28 September 2004, ‘Withdrawal of [name of

source] CX’.

252 Minutes, 29 September 2004, JIC meeting.

253 Letter SIS to Private Secretary [FCO], 29 September 2004, ‘CURVEBALL: Withdrawal of […] reporting’.

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