4.3 | Iraq WMD assessments, October 2002 to March 2003

467. Sir David Manning advised Mr Blair:

“I asked that you should have this Summary from the Chairman of JIC before action

begins. Worth adding that all political intelligence also points to Saddam and senior

officials aware of WMD programmes and determined to retain them.”171

468. Mr Blair replied: “Good.”172

469. The advice to No.10 was not formally considered and agreed by the JIC or

sent to other Ministers.

470. A draft of the document held by the MOD, also dated 17 March 2003, shows

Sir David Omand, Sir Richard Dearlove, Sir Francis Richards (Director, Government

Communications Headquarters (GCHQ)) and senior officials in the MOD, the FCO and

the Cabinet Office as copy recipients.173

471. Mr Hoon quoted from that draft when he told the Inquiry that Mr Scarlett had

advised that Iraq had “the capacity to re-establish production” of chemical and

biological weapons.174

472. A manuscript note written by Mr Scarlett in February 2004 stated that the note “was

approved by the Agencies and DIS. It was not formally at JIC.”175

473. The Government has confirmed that there are no additional words on the copy of

the minute on the No.10 file.

474. The Inquiry concludes that the advice was not formally approved by the JIC.

475. The Government was unable to find any evidence that the final version of

Mr Scarlett’s minute to Sir David Manning was sent to anyone outside No.10.176

476. The JIC continued to assess that Iraq had usable chemical and biological

weapons and might use them, although its ability to do so could be limited.

171 Manuscript comment Manning to Prime Minister, 18 March 2003, on Minute Scarlett to Manning,

17 March 2003, ‘Iraqi WMD: Evidence of Possession’.

172 Manuscript comment Blair, [undated], on Manning to Prime Minister, 18 March 2003, on Minute Scarlett

to Manning, 17 March 2003, ‘Iraqi WMD: Evidence of Possession’.

173 Minute [unsigned draft] Scarlett to Manning, 17 March 2003, ‘Iraqi WMD: Evidence of Possession’,

found on MOD files, with amendments from the Defence Intelligence Staff.

174 Public hearing, 19 January 2010, page 122.

175 Manuscript comment Scarlett to Powell, 2 February [2004], on Minute Scarlett to Manning,

17 March 2003, ‘Iraqi WMD: Evidence of Possession’.

176 Letter Cabinet Office to Iraq Inquiry, 19 March 2014, ‘Declassification’.

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