4.2 |
Iraq WMD assessments, July to September 2002
36.
One of the
elements was the need to explain why action to disarm Iraq
was
necessary.
In a paragraph on “The
Evidence”,
Mr Blair wrote that he had been told that
the US
thought evidence was unnecessary but his view was “we still need to
make the
case”. He
suggested:
“If we
recapitulate all the WMD evidence; add his [Saddam Hussein’s]
attempts to
secure
nuclear capability; and, as seems possible, add on the Al Qaida
link, it will
be hugely
persuasive over here. Plus … the abhorrent nature of the regime. It
could
be done
simultaneously with the deadline.”
37.
In a final
section addressing “The Military
Plan”,
Mr Blair wrote that he had been
advised
that there was a “risk of CW being used” if a military attack was
launched which
did not
result in the rapid collapse of the Iraqi regime.
38.
Sir David
Manning had a “pre-meeting” with Mr Richard Armitage, the US
Deputy
39.
Sir David told
the Inquiry that he had raised a number of detailed points
with
Mr Armitage:
“… Why now?
What if Saddam Hussein were to use weapons of mass
destruction
during a
military campaign? What would follow military action? What role …
would
the United
States see the United Nations playing, and what was the United
States
planning to
do about the Middle East Peace Process [MEPP]?”16
40.
Sir David said
that he had told Mr Armitage that he “didn’t think we had
answers to
those
questions”. Mr Armitage had replied that he thought they
needed a lot more work
and that:
“It was better to be right than to hurry.”
41.
In response to
a request from Mr Powell, Mr Scarlett sent Mr Blair
“classified reading
material on
Iraq” including two documents produced by the Defence Intelligence
Staff
(DIS) on
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and
Iraq:17
•
‘Proliferation
Study of Iraq’, providing an in-depth study of each of
Iraq’s
programmes
to develop weapons of mass destruction, produced in
August
2002; and
•
an ‘aide
memoire on Weapons of Mass Destruction and Proliferation’,
including
Iraq,
produced in June 2002.
15
Public
hearing, 30 November 2009, page 16.
16
Public
hearing, 30 November 2009, pages 16-17.
17
Minute
Scarlett to Powell, 1 August 2002, ‘Iraq: Classified Reading
Material’.
121