The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
408.
Mr Hoon
also proposed that Mr Blair might raise with President Bush
“the need for
a
comprehensive public handling strategy, so that we can explain
convincingly why we
need to
take such drastic action against Iraq’s WMD now”.
409.
Mr Straw
pointed out that the evidence did not explain why the threat
from
Iraq would
justify military action.
410.
On 25 March,
Mr Straw sent a personal minute to Mr Blair on the way
ahead
on Iraq.
411.
In relation to
the draft document for publication, Mr Straw wrote that making
the
case that
“Saddam and the Iraq regime are bad” was “easy”, but there were
four areas
where there
was “a long way to go to convince” the PLP, including about “the
scale of
the threat
from Iraq and why this has got worse recently” and “what
distinguishes the
Iraqi
threat from that of eg Iran and North Korea so as to justify
military action”.180
412.
Mr Straw
advised that the Iraqi regime posed “a most serious threat to
its
neighbours,
and therefore to international security” but, from “the documents
so far
presented
it has been hard to glean whether the threat from Iraq is so
significantly
different”
as to justify military action. There was:
“… no
credible evidence to link Iraq with UBL and Al Qaida …
“…
Objectively, the threat from Iraq has not worsened as a result of
11 September.
What has,
however, changed is the tolerance of the international community
…”
413.
Addressing the
difference between Iraq, Iran and North Korea, Mr Straw
wrote:
“By linking
these countries together in his ‘axis of evil’ speech, President
Bush
implied an
identity between them not only in terms of their threat, but also
in terms of
the action
necessary to deal with the threat. A lot of work will now need to
be done
to delink
the three, and to show why military action against Iraq is so much
more
justified
than against Iran and North Korea. The heart of this case – that
Iraq poses a
unique and
present danger – rests on the fact that it:
•
invaded a
neighbour;
•
has used
WMD, and would use them again;
•
is in
breach of nine UNSCRs.”
414.
Work in the
MOD in late March to address the difference between US and
UK
estimates
of the time Iraq would need to acquire a nuclear weapon exposed
the
extent of
the difficulties Iraq would face.
180
Minute
Straw to Prime Minister, 25 March 2002,
‘Crawford/Iraq’.
88