4.1 |
Iraq WMD assessments, pre-July 2002
“In the end
it was agreed that the dossier should be ‘factual’ … MI6 was
also
concerned
that it should not contain any information that could threaten
its
intelligence
sources …
“However,
many of the new allegations … are based on assumption and
speculation
… evidence
about Baghdad’s development of biological weapons … is largely
based
on what was
discovered by UN weapons inspectors back in 1998.
“Even the
CIA [Central Intelligence Agency] admits that intelligence gathered
after
that date …
is far from reliable.”
404.
Mr Hoon
and Mr Straw both wrote to Mr Blair before the meeting
with
President
Bush at Crawford, Texas on 5 to 6 April 2002.
405.
In relation
to Iraq’s WMD:
•
Mr Hoon
emphasised the importance of a wider
counter-proliferation
strategy in
the Middle East, stating that, in objective terms, Iran might be
a
bigger
problem for the UK than Iraq.
•
Mr Hoon
also stated that a number of issues would need to be
addressed
before
forces were committed to military action, including the need for
a
comprehensive
public handling strategy convincingly to explain why
such
drastic
action against Iraq’s WMD was needed now.
406.
The
preparations for Mr Blair’s meeting with President Bush in
early April 2002,
including
minutes to Mr Blair from Mr Hoon on 22 March and
Mr Straw on 25 March
which
raised a range of issues, are addressed in detail in Section
3.2.
407.
In relation to
the threat posed by Iraq’s WMD, Mr Hoon wrote:
“The key
strategic problem is the spread of WMD – of which Saddam is only
one
unpleasant
dimension. A more active counter-proliferation strategy is required
for the
region as a
whole (for example any Iraqi government will seek WMD if Iran is
getting
them so our
strategy must cover both) …
“… In
objective terms, Iran may be the greater problem for the UK …
Ironically,
we have
Saddam Hussein bound into an established control mechanism.
There is
some substance
in the US view that he as an individual is at the root of the
WMD
risk in
Iraq. But any Iraqi government is likely to try and achieve a
balance of
179
Minute Hoon
to Prime Minister, 22 March 2002, ‘Iraq’.
87