4.1 |
Iraq WMD assessments, pre-July 2002
317.
The revised
draft of the paper for publication on WMD programmes
of
concern
sent to No.10 on 15 March incorporated new material strengthening
the
sections on
Iraq’s capabilities, including highlighting some unique features
in
relation to
Iraq’s violation of Security Council resolutions and Saddam
Hussein’s
use of CW
agents against his own people.
318.
The draft
included a diagram illustrating the impact of a nuclear
warhead
with a 20
kiloton yield exploding over London, despite the fact that Iraq did
not
have such a
capability and there was no indication that Iraq would target the
UK.
319.
In response to
a request from Sir David Manning to look hard at the facts on
Iraq,
which would
come in for tough scrutiny, particularly about the missile
programmes,
Mr Miller
advised on 11 March that:
•
“… there is
not much new intelligence in the paper. It is open to the question:
so
what has
changed?”
•
Mr Campbell
had had “a first run through the draft” that morning, and thought
it
was on “the
right lines” but “suggested a number of areas where more
details
could be
included”.
•
Mr Campbell
had “also commissioned an unclassified paper on the world
trade
320.
Mr Scarlett
sent what was described as a “final draft” of the paper on
WMD
programmes
of concern to senior officials in the FCO, the MOD and the
intelligence
agencies,
on 13 March.148
321.
Mr Scarlett
wrote that the draft further reflected the views of No.10 on an
earlier
version,
and that it was “broadly content with the thrust of the
paper”.
322.
Mr Scarlett
drew attention to the fact that there were “still some reservations
on
a number of
key points”, including going further than before in statements on
Iran and
Libya’s
nuclear programmes.
323.
Mr Scarlett
sought final comments before a meeting the following day “to
resolve
any
outstanding issues”.
324.
The key
changes to the draft paper submitted on 6 March were:
•
The
Introduction, Background and Aim were largely unchanged although
a
sentence
was added to the last stating that the paper focused “on four
countries,
which we
judge pose a potential threat to our interests”.
147
Minute
Miller to Manning, 11 March 2002, ‘WMD: Public Paper’.
148
Minute
Scarlett to C and others, 13 March 2002, ‘WMD Programmes of Concern
– Public Version’.
73