The Report of the Iraq Inquiry

JIC Current Intelligence Group Assessment, 15 March 2002

285.  A Current Intelligence Group (CIG) Assessment of the status of Iraq’s

WMD programmes was produced to inform Mr Blair’s discussions with

President Bush. It stated that Iraq continued to pursue a policy of acquiring

WMD and their delivery means.

286.  A CIG Assessment, ‘The Status of Iraqi WMD Programmes’, was “approved on

behalf of the Committee [JIC]” by Mr Miller on 15 March 2002.125

287.  The Assessment stated that it had been commissioned by the FCO “to aid policy

discussions on Iraq”, but the minutes of the JIC of 6 March suggest it was produced

in response to a request from Sir David Manning specifically to inform Mr Blair’s

discussions with President Bush.126

288.  The Key Judgements in the Assessment were:

“• Iraq retains up to 20 Al Hussein ballistic missiles … The location and

condition of these is unknown, but there is sufficient engineering expertise to

make them operational.

• Iraq has begun development of medium range ballistic missiles over

1,000km … but will not be able to produce such a missile before 2007

provided that sanctions remain effective.

• Iraq is pursuing a nuclear weapons programme. But it will not be able to

indigenously produce a nuclear weapon while sanctions remain in place,

unless suitable fissile material is purchased from abroad.

• Iraq may retain some stocks of chemical agents. Following a decision to do

so, Iraq could produce:

{{significant quantities of mustard within weeks;

{{significant quantities of sarin and VX within months, and in the case of

VX may already have done so.

• Iraq currently has available, either from pre-Gulf War stocks or more recent

production, a number of biological agents. Iraq could produce more of these

biological agents within days.

• A decision to begin CBW production would probably go undetected.

• Iraq can deliver CBW weapons by a variety of means including ballistic missiles.

Iraq’s CBW production capability is designed to survive a military attack and

UN inspectors.”

125  CIG Assessment, 15 March 2002, ‘The Status of Iraqi WMD Programmes’.

126  Minutes, 6 March 2002, JIC meeting.

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