4.1 |
Iraq WMD assessments, pre-July 2002
175.
Mr Miller
commented that the paper on WMD was “intended to be more
about
capabilities
than proliferation”.88
176.
Ms Jane
Hamilton-Eddy, one of the Deputy Heads of the Assessments
Staff,
wrote to
the members of the JIC Current Intelligence Group (CIG) on
proliferation on
22
February, with a first draft of the WMD paper which concentrated on
Iran, Iraq, North
Korea and
Libya.89
The draft
drew heavily on US published sources.
177.
Ms
Hamilton-Eddy wrote that the aim was to include “relevant UK
intelligence
which helps
to underpin our assessment”. Recipients, “particularly in the
agencies”, were
asked to
“determine what additional material might be
available”.
178.
An article
appeared in The
Observer on 24 February
reporting that the Government
was
planning to publish detailed evidence of Iraq’s nuclear
capabilities.90
179.
A “senior
No.10 official” was reported to have said that the meeting
between
Mr Blair
and President Bush in April would “finalise Phase Two of the war
against
terrorism”,
and “Action against Iraq” would be “at the top of the agenda”. As
with
Usama Bin
Laden and the war in Afghanistan, it would be necessary to
maintain public
and
international support for military action against Saddam Hussein.
That was a
“public persuasion”
issue which would be tackled in the same way as the
unprecedented
“indictment” against Usama Bin Laden published by No.10
in
October 2001
(see Section 3.1).
180.
The
Observer article also
suggested that the document would “reveal that Iraq
was
attempting to amass rudimentary nuclear capabilities” and was “also
investigating a
way to
launch ‘dirty’ nuclear bombs – unsophisticated devices which would
nevertheless
wreak havoc
if used”.
181.
A JIC
Assessment issued on 27 February 2002 stated that Iraq
continued
to pursue
its WMD programmes: design work for missiles with ranges
greater
than the UN
limit of 150km was under way and it could produce chemical
warfare
agents
“within weeks” of a decision to do so.
182.
The JIC
also introduced a new judgement that if it had not already done
so,
Iraq could
produce significant quantities of biological warfare agent within
days.
88
Manuscript
comment Miller on Minute McKane to Manning, 19 February 2002,
‘Papers for the Prime
Minister’.
89
Letter
Hamilton-Eddy to JIC (Proliferation CIG) Members, 22 February 2002,
‘WMD Programmes of
Concern’.
90
The
Observer, 24
February 2002, Blair and
Bush to plot war on Iraq.
47