The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
145.
Mr Straw
was sent copies of the December 2000 and May 2001 JIC
Assessments
in
mid-November.76
He was told
that the Key Judgements were “unchanged” and the
JIC would
be reviewing its judgements and the “threat of onward proliferation
of WMD
expertise
and technology from Iraq to terrorist groups” later that
month.
146.
The FCO
informed Mr Straw that the main conclusions to be drawn
included:
•
Iraq
“probably” had the capability to strike Israel and other countries
“with
missiles
tipped with chemical and biological warheads”.
•
It was
“highly unlikely” that Iraq possessed a nuclear weapon, but it had
“the
motive and
technology to develop a radiological device”.
•
UN sanctions
had “prevented the reconstruction of Saddam’s
conventional
military
machine”.
147.
The FCO advice
also stated:
•
Recent
intelligence indicated that research and development on
nuclear
weapons
continued and that Iraq was seeking equipment for a
uranium
enrichment
programme.
•
Iraq’s CBW
capabilities were the “greatest concern”.
•
It was
judged that Iraq “was able to conceal large quantities of chemical
and
biological
stocks”.
148.
The FCO also
provided a copy of the “current press lines”,
including:
•
The UK
believed the “Baghdad regime” was “still hiding weapons of
mass
destruction
in a range of locations”.
•
The
“Baghdad regime” had “continued to pursue ballistic missile,
nuclear,
chemical
and biological programmes in breach of its UN
obligations”.
•
Iraq had
“admitted hiding chemical, biological weapons and missile parts in
the
desert …
caves and railway tunnels”.
•
The UK
believed Iraq still had “chemical and biological agents and the
means to
deliver
them in a range of locations”.
•
Iraq had
admitted producing chemical and biological warfare agents, the
effects
of which
were “horrendous”.
•
The UK
believed the “Baghdad regime” had “recently accelerated its
weapons
programmes”.
76
Minute FCO
[junior official] to Dowse and PS [FCO], 13 November 2001, ‘Iraqi
Capacity to Hit Back’.
This
mistakenly refers to an assessment in “November” 2000.
42