4.1 |
Iraq WMD assessments, pre-July 2002
138.
Sir John
Scarlett told the Inquiry that there had been “serious concern” in
the
autumn of
2001 about the availability of fissile material “especially from
the former Soviet
Union”, but
he and Mr Miller both confirmed that there was no specific
intelligence about
potential
supply to Iraq.70
139.
Sir David
Manning, Mr Blair’s Foreign Policy Adviser and Head of the
Cabinet
Office
Overseas and Defence Secretariat (OD Sec) from 2001 to August 2003,
told the
Inquiry
that his American interlocutors were “very concerned about what was
going on in
140.
Sir David also
told the Inquiry that finds in Afghanistan had refocused
attention
on WMD and
proliferation. There was pressure to deal with the Libyan programme
and
concerns
about Iran and AQ Khan (in Pakistan).72
141.
The Butler
Review described how, in early 2002:
“For the
small group of policy-makers with access to the most sensitive
JIC
Assessments,
there were increasing concerns about proliferation … It [the
JIC]
was also
reporting on the evidence found, as a result of military operations
in
Afghanistan,
of Usama Bin Laden’s efforts to seek unconventional weapons.
Finally
senior
policy-makers were also pre-occupied with the crisis between India
and
Pakistan
and the nuclear risks which that posed.”73
142.
The Butler
Review concluded that those elements “would have contributed to
a
strong
sense of what one witness called a ‘creeping tide’ of proliferation
and growth
in the
nuclear, biological, chemical and ballistic missile capabilities of
countries of
143.
FCO advice
to Mr Straw and No.10 on Iraq’s nuclear, chemical and
biological
warfare
programmes in early December was, in some instances, couched in
more
definitive
terms than the language used by the JIC and omitted the JIC
caveats.
144.
Mr Dowse
told the Inquiry that, shortly after 9/11, Mr Jack Straw, the
Foreign
Secretary,
asked about Iraq’s ability to use WMD if it was attacked and that
the
assessment
provided by the FCO drew on the existing JIC
papers.75
70
Private
hearing, 5 May 2010, page 49.
71
Public
hearing, 30 November 2009, page 4.
72
Private
hearing, 24 June 2010, pages 6-7
73
Review of
Intelligence on Weapons of Mass Destruction [“The
Butler Report”], 14 July 2004, HC 898,
paragraph
256.
74
Review of
Intelligence on Weapons of Mass Destruction [“The
Butler Report”], 14 July 2004, HC 898,
paragraph
257.
75
Public
hearing, 25 November 2009, page 44.
41