4.1  |  Iraq WMD assessments, pre-July 2002

100.  In response to the presence of the US in the Arabian Peninsula and its “continuing

aggression against the Iraqi people”, Usama Bin Laden and others issued a “fatwa”

in February 1998 stating that it was “an individual duty for every Muslim” to “kill the

Americans and their allies – civilian and military”.50

101.  In November 1998, the JIC stated that Usama Bin Laden had:

“… a long-standing interest in the potential use of CBR [chemical, biological and

radiological] materials, and recent intelligence suggests his ideas about toxic

materials are maturing and being developed in more detail … There is also secret

reporting that he may have obtained some CB material – and that he is interested in

nuclear materials. We assess that he lacks the expertise or facilities even to begin

making a nuclear weapon, but he might seek to make a radiological device.”51

102.  In an interview with the BBC and the London-published Arabic newspaper Asharq

Al-Awsat in December 1998, following Operation Desert Fox, Usama Bin Laden stated

that “The British and American people loudly declared their support for their leaders’

decision to attack Iraq”, and that made it “the duty of Muslims to confront fight and kill”

citizens of the two countries.52

103.  BBC News reported that Usama Bin Laden had stated that it was the duty of

Muslims to “get rid of all the Americans and all of the Jews out of the land of Islam”.

104.  In 1999, the JIC revised its position, concluding that some terrorists were no

longer reluctant to cause mass casualties. The risk of a terrorist incident using

chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear material had increased, but most

terrorists would “continue to favour conventional weapons”.

105.  Following receipt of further intelligence, the JIC stated in June 1999:

“Most of UBL’s [Usama Bin Laden’s] planned attacks would use conventional

weapons. But he continues to seek chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear

material and to develop a capability for its terrorist use. There is insufficient evidence

to conclude that he has yet acquired radiological or nuclear material. In contrast,

we now assess that his followers have access to some unspecified chemical or

biological material. Some have received basic training in its use against individuals

or in confined spaces.

“In April a leading Egyptian terrorist … told an Egyptian court that UBL had CB

‘weapons’ which he could use against US or Israeli targets.”53

50  World Islamic Front, 23 February 1998, Jihad against Jews and Crusaders.

51  Review of Intelligence on Weapons of Mass Destruction [“The Butler Report”], 14 July 2004, HC 898,

paragraph 117.

52  BBC News, 26 December 1998, Bin Laden urges revenge.

53  Review of Intelligence on Weapons of Mass Destruction [“The Butler Report”], 14 July 2004, HC 898,

paragraph 118.

33