4.1 |
Iraq WMD assessments, pre-July 2002
89.
The
possibility that terrorist groups might seek to use
unconventional
weapons
was, until the mid-1990s, considered unlikely.
90.
The Butler
Review reported that JIC Assessments during the 1980s considered
the
possibility
that terrorist groups might seek to use unconventional weapons as
“remote”.43
91.
In June 1989,
the JIC stated:
“We have no
intelligence that any terrorist group makes CBW agents,
possesses
any such
agents or is currently contemplating attacks using CBW agents or
other
toxic
chemicals. The use of CBW agents by terrorists would generate
widespread
fear and
could cause large numbers of casualties … The mere threat of such
use
could be
sufficient to cause panic.
“A
terrorist would need only small quantities of CW agents. The
simpler ones could
in
principle be made by anyone with a knowledge of A-level chemistry
using readily
obtainable
materials. We believe that terrorist organisations could also
readily obtain
and handle
without insurmountable difficulty, suitable bacteria, viruses and
certain
toxins.
“Although
CBW proliferation undoubtedly increases the risk that CBW agents
could
be stolen …
or even supplied to terrorists by state sponsors … this prospect
must
be viewed
against a background where many suitable agents can be
manufactured
in small
quantities using easily available materials. So far as terrorism is
concerned,
proliferation
(if it comes about) may not necessarily be much affected by the
actions
of States
with the relevant capability.”44
92.
In July, the
JIC stated:
“We believe
that even the most sophisticated and well-organised terrorist group
is
highly
unlikely to be able to steal and then detonate a nuclear weapon
within the
foreseeable
future … At present the most feasible terrorist nuclear incident
would
probably be
a credible hoax …”45
93.
In April 1992,
the JIC considered the technical options for terrorist attacks
using
chemical,
biological, radiological or nuclear weapons, but emphasised the
perceived
difficulties,
stating that terrorist groups might:
“… be
deterred by the danger to their own members, or by the risk of
alienating the
public and
especially their own supporters. They may also fear that an attack
would
cause
international outrage leading to determined efforts on an
international scale
43
Review of
Intelligence on Weapons of Mass Destruction [“The
Butler Report”], 14 July 2004, HC 898,
paragraph
111.
44
Review of
Intelligence on Weapons of Mass Destruction [“The
Butler Report”], 14 July 2004, HC 898,
paragraph
111.
45
Review of
Intelligence on Weapons of Mass Destruction [“The
Butler Report”], 14 July 2004, HC 898,
paragraph
111.
31