The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
388.
In response to
Mr Ricketts’ attempt to focus on issues after the conflict and
wider
US/European
relations, Mr Errera stated that “the Americans were
determined to divide
and rule”;
and that they expected “unquestioning support for whatever was
their policy
objective
of the moment”.
389.
Mr Ricketts
“disputed the model”, commenting that “a bit more modesty”
in
European
ambitions for a common foreign and security policy “might not be a
bad thing”.
Mr Errera
“did not have any new thoughts on how a different transatlantic
relationship
could be
constructed in the light of Iraq beyond the need to strengthen
Europe”.
390.
Mr Ricketts
concluded that Mr Errera was “keen to keep channels open
despite
the difficulties”;
and that he had given the same message.
391.
A copy of the
letter from Mr Ricketts was sent to Sir David
Manning.
392.
The Joint
Intelligence Committee (JIC) continued to warn in March that
the
threat from
Al Qaida would increase at the onset of military action against
Iraq.
393.
The JIC
also warned that:
•
Al Qaida
activity in northern Iraq continued; and
•
Al Qaida
might have established sleeper cells in Baghdad, to be
activated
during a US
occupation.
394.
On 12 March,
the JIC produced a further update on the implications
for
international
terrorism of military action in Iraq.121
395.
In its Key
Judgements, the JIC stated:
“•
The threat
from Al Qaida will increase at the onset of military action against
Iraq.
Attack
plans in the time-frame of a potential conflict are probably now
going
ahead under
the control of lower-level operational leaders, but Khalid
Sheikh
Muhammad’s
capture may lead to postponement or abandonment of at
least
some
terrorist plans.
•
The
greatest threat to Western interests from Islamist terrorists is in
the Middle
East.
South-East Asia and East Africa are the most likely regions for
attack
outside the
Middle East, although Al Qaida retains a strong determination
to
mount
attacks in the US and UK.
•
Al Qaida
and sympathisers may well attempt chemical or biological
terrorist
attacks in
the Gulf, including against UK civilian targets there, in the event
of
war with
Iraq.
121
JIC
Assessment, 12 March 2003, ‘International Terrorism: War with Iraq:
Update’.
468