The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
630.
Mr Campbell
wrote that Mr Blair told President Bush that we couldn’t
dispute public
opinion was
against us but he strongly felt that the French and Germans were in
the
right place
for public opinion but in the wrong place for the
world.170
631.
President Bush
wrote in his memoir that, in his Note of 19 February, Mr Blair
had
“urged that
we forge ahead” and that he had written: “The stakes are now much
higher”.
Mr Blair
had also written that it was “apparent” to him “from the EU Summit
that France
wants to
make this a crucial test: Is Europe America’s partner or
competitor?”, and that
there was
support for the US from a strong European
coalition.171
At the
request of the Cabinet Office Overseas and Defence Secretariat, the
JIC produced
an
Assessment on 19 February of the situation in southern Iraq and
what might happen
there
before, during and after any coalition military
action.172
The
Assessment and Mr Blair’s request for further advice are
addressed in Sections 6.2
and
6.5.
632.
An open debate
of the Security Council requested by the Non-Aligned
Movement
(NAM) was
held on 18 and 19 February.173
The debate
gave the Security Council the
opportunity
to hear the views of non-members.
633.
Sixty UN
Member States or Permanent Observers spoke in the debate,
the
overwhelming
majority opposing the use of force. The members of the Security
Council
did not
speak. Ms Louise Fréchette, UN Deputy Secretary-General, attended
the debate,
but did not
speak.
634.
Mr Dumisani
Kumalo, South African Permanent Representative to the
UN,
speaking on
behalf of the NAM, said that NAM members considered resolution
1441
to be
“about ensuring that Iraq is peacefully disarmed”. The Security
Council was yet
to “fully
utilize the inspection mechanisms of resolution 1441”.
635.
Mr Aldouri
stated that the United States had transformed a “technical
and
scientific issue”
into a “political” one, and reaffirmed Iraq’s commitment to
“full
and active co-operation
with UNMOVIC and the IAEA”.
170
Campbell A
& Hagerty B. The
Alastair Campbell Diaries. Volume 4. The Burden of
Power:
Countdown to
Iraq. Hutchinson,
2012.
171
Bush
GW. Decision
Points. Virgin
Books, 2010.
172
JIC
Assessment, 19 February 2003, ‘Southern Iraq: What’s in
Store?’.
173
UN Security
Council, ‘4709th Meeting Tuesday 18 February 2003’ (S/PV.4709); UN
Security Council,
‘4709th
Meeting Wednesday 19 February 2003’ (S/PV.4709, Resumption
1).
292