3.7 |
Development of UK strategy and options, 1 February to 7 March
2003
610.
Mr Blair
continued that the UK and US should say that:
“… failure
in any respect to meet this test, will amount to non-co-operation;
that
this is
a final attempt by us to disarm Saddam peacefully; that by 14 March
it will
be 4
months since 1441, quite long enough to assess whether he is
co-operating
or not.
“We work
like crazy next week to get the UNSC members to agree or at least
not
oppose this
strategy; and then build the support to carry a majority for 14
March.”
611.
Mr Blair
recognised that there were both advantages and disadvantages in
his
proposed
approach. The disadvantages were identified as:
•
The risk
that Saddam Hussein “might conceivably comply fully – but the
chances
of this,
according to all the intelligence are minimal”. If he did comply,
“it would
still
amount to a huge humiliation [to Saddam Hussein]”.
•
Saddam
Hussein might “seem” to comply but that was “a risk in any event
and
by defining
non-compliance so clearly” the “chances of ambiguity” would
be
minimised.
•
The start
of military action might be delayed by a week: “But this is not
long and
the blunt
truth is that by next Friday i.e. 28 February or even a week later
… the
chances of
securing nine votes are very slim. A week’s wait is worth a
resolution;
or at least
a majority on the UNSC.”
612.
Mr Blair
saw the advantages as:
•
putting the
US and UK “back in the driving seat, with a clear deadline
and
ultimatum”;
•
re-focusing
the “debate where it should be” on Iraq’s duty “fully to
co-operate”;
•
giving the
“doubters a reason to sign up”;
•
helping
“the Arab world come on board”;
•
accepting
the French date;
•
allowing
the US and UK to “show the world we are going to war, not
because
we want
to, but because we have to”; and
•
“Above
all”:
{{show
“the US reaching out”;
{{set “the
UN a fundamental test”;
{{give the
Europeans something to rally round; and
{{“When we
do act, it will show we went the last mile for peace.”
613.
Mr Blair
told President Bush:
“A
successful second resolution would be an enormous success for your
diplomacy
over the
last few months.
289