The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
487.
Sir Jeremy
suggested that elements in the ultimatum should “either test
the
French idea
to destruction … or give the inspectors a real chance to deliver a
judgement
which will
convince six more Council members”. Dr Blix could play a role:
“There
should be
room to move him to a firmer approach which raises the chances of
the
inspectors
achieving more.” Sir Jeremy reported that Dr Blix was
interested in ideas
for more
vigorous inspections “though downbeat about the amount of time
available
from the
US”.
488.
Sir Jeremy
concluded:
“If we and
the US are true to our pronouncements of force as a last resort,
bringing
the
Americans back to their mid-September approach as a last gasp
before pressing
the plunger
at least has a certain logical force.”
489.
Sir David
Manning proposed a resolution setting a deadline of 14 March
for
Saddam
Hussein to demonstrate that he was complying fully with resolution
1441,
after which
he would be in further material breach.
490.
Sir David
envisaged that military action would not begin until late
March,
giving 10
days for Arab leaders to persuade Saddam Hussein to
depart.
491.
The
resolution should specify what compliance meant. That would
set
the bar at
a level it would be difficult for Saddam Hussein to reach and
prevent
equivocation
in the inspectors’ reports.
492.
France
would seek to block the resolution and to string
out inspections
indefinitely.
493.
Sir David
Manning advised Mr Blair on 16 February that Dr Blix’s
careful “fence
sitting” in
his report to the Security Council had:
“…
encouraged the wishful thinkers and procrastinators. For the
moment, there
is almost
certainly a Security Council majority for letting the inspections
run, not
for moving
to early military action.”132
494.
Sir David
advised that it would be necessary “to go on making the argument
that
the issue
is compliance. Our best bet may be to concede a little more time
while issuing
an
ultimatum.”
495.
Sir David set
out a proposal along the lines suggested by Mr Ricketts to
Mr Straw,
including a
second resolution “stipulating that unless Blix reports on 14 March
that
Saddam is
in full, unqualified, unequivocal compliance with 1441, he will be
in further
material
breach”. There would then be an immediate vote after Dr Blix
reported.
132
Minute
Manning to Prime Minister, 16 February 2003, ‘Iraq: Way
Forward’.
268