3.6 |
Development of UK strategy and options, November 2002 to January
2003
934.
The Inquiry
asked Mr Blair at what point he had concluded that the US
“had
definitely
decided on military action in March 2003”.307
935.
In his
statement for the Inquiry, Mr Blair wrote:
“It was
clear from continuing discussion with the US in late 2002/early
2003 that
March was
the likely date for military action. That firmed up as it became
plain
that there
was no significant shift in the attitude of Saddam. The
December
declaration …
was incomplete, as Blix noted … His first report was to the effect
that
there was
not full compliance, essentially around interviews. There were
various
possible
alternatives to military action surfacing, including proposals for
Saddam
peacefully
to give up power.”308
936.
In the context
of questions about his decision not to tell President Bush
privately
that he was
at that stage being advised by Lord Goldsmith that a second
resolution
would be
needed to provide the legal basis for UK participation in military
action, Mr Blair
told the
Inquiry that President Bush knew perfectly well that the UK needed
a second
resolution.
He added:
“If I had
started raising legal issues at that point with the President, I
think it would
have
started to make him concerned as to whether we were really going to
be there
or not and
what was really going to happen. Now I would have done that
because
in the end
whatever I thought about the legal position, the person whose
thoughts
mattered
most and definitively were Peter [Goldsmith]’s, but I wasn’t going
to do that
until I was
sure about it.”309
937.
Lord Goldsmith’s
position is addressed in more detail in Section 5.
938.
Asked when the
question of more time had come up against the US
military
timetable,
Sir David Manning told the Inquiry:
“The issue,
I think, of timing becomes acute after 1441 and the
declaration.
Once Saddam
has produced his 12,000 pages and the Americans decide
this
is not serious,
then they just want to get on with it really.”310
939.
Asked whether
the military timetable was so fixed that time was running
out,
Sir David
replied that the build up of troops meant there was “a sort of
pressure to
move forward”,
and:
“There’s
also the American political timetable ticking. Bush wants this well
out of the
way before
going into the mid‑term election process in – the build‑up for
elections
307
Inquiry
request for a witness statement, 13 December 2010, Q8, page
6.
308
Statement,
14 January 2011, page 11.
309
Public
hearing, 21 January 2011, pages 69‑70.
310
Private
hearing, 24 June 2010, page 87.
311
Private
hearing, 24 June 2010, pages 87‑88.
171