The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
At the
request of the Cabinet Office, the JIC assessed the threat from
international
terrorism
over the next five years, to inform the UK’s counter‑terrorism
strategy, on
The minutes
record that the points made in discussion included:
•
The paper
needed to make a firmer judgement about whether the threat
from
terrorism
would diminish or increase. For instance, “would the terrorists up
the
ante … by
attempting to use CBRN [chemical, biological, radiological and
nuclear]
weapons”?
•
“The paper
should make more of the possible links between terrorist groups
and
the loose
network of WMD suppliers.”
•
In relation to
prospects for 2007, the paper should “stress the likelihood
of
mutation of
the threat, and highlight linkages to regional political
factors,
particularly
in the Middle East”.
The JIC
Assessment judged that Al Qaida would continue to attempt mass
effect attacks,
and that
“Attacks using chemical/biological materials within the next five
years are almost
The JIC
also judged that Al Qaida might “develop radiological dispersal
devices or, less
likely,
improvised nuclear devices” and that “Technology, expertise and
materiel could be
acquired
from state programmes.”
The JIC
assessed that “Strong Coalition measures in the campaign against
terrorism”
would
“further radicalise at least some young Muslims. Many issues could
draw large
numbers to
the Islamist extremist ideology over the next five years, including
US‑led
action
against Iraq and a subsequent occupation.”
The
Assessment stated: “Major political change in countries like Iraq
[... and others] could
place
elements of state CBRN programmes at the disposal of Al
Qaida.”
The JIC
sustained its Assessment that the UK would “remain a priority Al
Qaida target”.
Sir David
Omand, the Cabinet Office Permanent Secretary and Security and
Intelligence
co‑ordinator
from June 2002 to April 2005, told the Inquiry:
“On 13
December 2002, we warned that US‑led action could draw large
numbers
to the
Islamist extremist ideology over the following five years
…”90
88
Minutes, 11
December 2002, JIC meeting.
89
JIC
Assessment, 13 December 2002, ‘International Terrorism: The Next
Five Years’.
90
Public
hearing, 20 January 2010, page 39.
50