3.3 |
Development of UK strategy and options,
April to July 2002
276.
It was not
written to provide a broader and more fundamental analysis of
the
policy
choices which the UK Government might at that time have considered,
and
their
consequences, including:
•
the actual
threat posed by Iraq’s WMD at that stage as opposed to
future risks;
•
the
implications of issuing an ultimatum to Iraq demanding the
return
of
inspectors in the absence of any agreement within the P5 on either
a
process for
clarifying the provisions of resolution 1284 (1999) or what
that
should be
seeking to achieve, including the timescale which would
be
needed for
inspections if Iraq agreed to the demand;
•
the
potential conflict between the timetable for inspections
envisaged
in
resolution 1284 and what the UK understood about US thinking on
a
timetable
for military action;
•
whether
military action would be the best way to secure the
UK’s objective;
•
the
longer-term consequences and obligations which were likely to
arise
from
military action; and
•
the
potential wider risks to UK interests.
277.
Some of
those issues, but by no means all, were addressed in the advice
sent
to Mr Straw
and Mr Hoon in preparation for the meeting with Mr Blair on 23
July.
278.
Sir David
Manning gave the Cabinet Office paper to the Prime Minister
on
19 July
to read over the weekend, writing: “It covers much of the ground we
discussed
279.
Mr Blair
commented on the Cabinet Office paper that: “The legal advice is,
as ever,
280.
Mr Blair’s
position on the legal advice is addressed in Section
5.
281.
Mr McKane
reminded Sir David Manning on 19 July that:
“Existing
government policy – as established by DOP [the Defence and
Overseas
Policy Sub
Committee of Cabinet] in May 1999 – is based on containment
of
Iraq.
If the
policy is changing, we ought to reflect this in a new DOP paper.
Timing will
obviously
be critical but you might alert the PM to this
point.”117
282.
There is no
mention of this point in the written advice sent to Mr
Blair.
115
Note
Manning to Prime Minister, 19 July 2002, [untitled].
116
Manuscript
comment Blair on Note Manning to Prime Minister, 19 July 2002,
[untitled].
117
Minute
McKane to Manning, 19 July 2002, ‘Iraq’.
49