The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
foreseeable
future. Keeping us on as … lead nation until the end of June is
exactly
what the
Americans wanted from the start.”
525.
Sir
Christopher told the Inquiry that he had advised Mr Blair to focus
on three
things at
Crawford:
•
“… how to
garner international support for a policy of regime change, if
that
is what
it turns out to be.”
•
“If it
involves removing Saddam Hussein, how do you do it and when
…”
•
“Above all
… get them to focus on the aftermath …”194
526.
Sir
Christopher added that regime change in Iraq did not, at that time,
“necessarily
mean an
armed invasion”.
527.
In response
to his concern about the impact that high oil prices might
have
on public
support for military action, Mr Blair was sent advice by both the
FCO
and Mr
Scarlett.
528.
In his minute
of 17 March, Mr Blair had described oil prices as his “big
domestic
worry”; and
that higher petrol prices “really might put the public
off”.195
529.
Mr Michael
Arthur, the FCO Economic Director, sent Sir David Manning
a
briefing on
the economic effects of military action against Iraq which
concluded that:
while
military action against Iraq would pose some risk to the oil
market, it should be
containable;
there would be unavoidable economic consequences for Iraq’s
neighbours,
particularly
Jordan; and economic effects on Iraq itself were
inevitable.196
It
suggested
that the UK
should think about helping northern Iraq.
530.
Mr Scarlett
responded to a separate request from Sir David Manning for an
update
on Iraq’s
oil production, the importance of oil income to the Iraqi regime
and the effect of
a halt in
oil exports on the world oil market on 4 April.197
531.
Mr Scarlett
advised:
•
Iraq
benefited from both manipulating the Oil-for-Food regime and
illegal
oil exports.
•
It was
“unlikely that Iraq would voluntarily cease its illegal oil
sales”.
•
Iraq had
halted oil exports under OFF for five weeks in mid-2001 to
pressurise
the
Russians to resist UK/US proposals on revised
sanctions.
194
Public
hearing, 26 November 2009, pages 27-28.
195
Minute
Prime Minister to Powell, 17 March 2002, ‘Iraq’.
196
Letter
Arthur to Manning, 26 March 2002, ‘Iraq: Back Pocket
Economics’.
197
Minute
Scarlett to Manning, 4 April 2002, ‘Iraq: Oil’.
482