Previous page | Contents | Next page
3.2  |  Development of UK strategy and options, January to April 2002 – “axis of evil” to Crawford
Iraq could “survive for several months at least and possibly several years”
without any oil income, as it had between 1991 and the end of 1996.
The contribution of revenues from OFF was not “regarded as necessarily crucial
to regime survival”.
Removal of access to revenue from illegal oil exports would be a “more direct
threat to the regime”.
There had been considerable successes in limiting oil smuggling through the
Gulf, but it had “proved politically impossible to counter effectively Iraq’s other
illegal oil exports”.
While a sudden cut in Iraqi oil exports would probably cause a temporary spike
in the oil price, the price rise would be “moderate” (less than US$5 per barrel).
Market expectations would be a key factor in determining the duration of the
spike. They were already influenced by “jitters over the Middle East and talk
of war with Iraq”.
532.  When Iraq announced on 8 April that it would halt oil exports under the UN
Oil‑for‑Food programme for 30 days “or until Israel withdraws from Palestinian
territories”, Mr Blair was advised that the market had already factored in the possibility
of disruption given the situation in the Middle East and the possibility of from an Iraqi
suspension of exports around the UN discussion of sanctions at the end of May.198
Chequers meeting, 2 April 2002
533.  Mr Blair discussed the need for a strategy to remove Saddam Hussein and
possible US military action in a meeting at Chequers on 2 April 2002.
534.  The meeting was clearly intended to inform Mr Blair’s approach in his
discussion with President Bush.
535.  Following Mr Blair’s request in his minute of 17 March for a meeting with military
personnel, a meeting was held at Chequers on 2 April. No formal record was made of
the discussion or who was present.
536.  Accounts given by participants suggest that Admiral Sir Michael Boyce, Chief of the
Defence Staff (CDS), Sir Kevin Tebbit, MOD Permanent Under Secretary (representing
Mr Hoon who was unable to attend), Lieutenant General Sir Anthony Pigott, Deputy
Chief of the Defence Staff (Commitments), Lieutenant General Cedric Delves, senior
UK liaison officer at CENTCOM, Sir Richard Dearlove, Mr Powell, Sir David Manning
and Mr Scarlett were present.
198  Minute No.10 [junior official] to Prime Minister, 8 April 2002, ‘Iraq Suspends Oil Exports; Impact
on the Oil Markets’.
483
Previous page | Contents | Next page