The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
421.
A Current
Intelligence Group (CIG)
Assessment of the status of Iraq’s WMD
programmes
was produced to inform Mr Blair’s discussions with
President
Bush. It
stated that Iraq continued to pursue a policy of acquiring WMD and
their
delivery
means.
422.
A CIG
Assessment, ‘The Status of Iraqi WMD Programmes’, was “approved
on
behalf of
the Committee” by Mr Miller on 15 March.151
(The status
of a CIG is explained
in Section
2.)
423.
The paper
stated that it had been commissioned by the FCO “to aid
policy
discussions
on Iraq”, but the minutes of the JIC of 6 March suggest it was
produced
in response
to a request from Sir David Manning specifically to inform Mr
Blair’s
discussions
with President Bush.152
424.
The Key
Judgements in the Assessment were:
“•
Iraq
retains up
to 20 Al Hussein ballistic missiles … The
location and
condition
of these is unknown, but there is sufficient engineering expertise
to
make them
operational.
•
Iraq has
begun development of medium
range ballistic missiles over 1000km
… but
will not be able
to produce such a missile before 2007 provided
that
sanctions
remain effective.
•
Iraq
is pursuing a
nuclear weapons programme.
But it will not
be able to
indigenously
produce a nuclear weapon while sanctions remain in
place,
unless
suitable fissile material is purchased from abroad.
•
Iraq
may retain
some stocks of chemical agents. Following
a decision to do
so, Iraq
could produce:
{{significant
quantities of mustard within
weeks;
{{significant
quantities of sarin and VX
within months, and in the
case of
VX may
already have done so.
•
Iraq
currently has
available, either
from pre Gulf War stocks or more recent
production,
a number of biological agents. Iraq could produce more of
these
biological
agents within
days.
•
A decision
to begin CBW production would probably go undetected.
•
Iraq can
deliver CBW weapons by a variety of means including ballistic
missiles.
Iraq’s CBW
production capability is designed to survive a
military attack and
UN
inspectors.”
151
CIG
Assessment,
15 March 2002, ‘The Status of Iraqi WMD Programmes’.
152
Minutes, 6
March 2002, JIC meeting.
462