The Report of the Iraq Inquiry

381. Sir David Manning told Dr Rice that the Israel/Palestine crisis, “where we

were accused of double standards”, would be “critical to Washington’s prospects of

constructing a coalition against Iraq”. If the crisis “went on spiralling down, it could lead

to a sharp divergence of view between Washington and the Europeans”. That would

“make the prospect of joint action against Iraq much more problematic”. Sir David stated

that the “urgent need for a process, and progress, towards peace” was “not an optional

extra”, it was “integral” to the strategy on Iraq. That would be the subject that Mr Blair

would “concentrate on when he sees the President after Easter”.

382. Sir David sent the account of his discussions with Dr Rice and other members of

the US National Security Council (NSC) to Mr Straw and Mr Hoon’s Private Secretaries

and to key officials.

383. Sir David Manning sent a separate note to Mr Blair.137

384. Sir David reported that President Bush was grateful for Mr Blair’s support and

had registered that Mr Blair was “getting flak”. Sir David had told President Bush that

Mr Blair:

“… would not budge in your support for regime change but you had to manage a

press and Parliament and a public opinion that was very different from anything in

the States. And you would not budge either in your insistence that, if he pursued

regime change, it must be carefully done and produce the right result. Failure was

not an option.”

385. Sir David wrote that Dr Rice was still enthusiastic about regime change, but there

were “some signs … of greater awareness of the practical difficulties and political risks”.

But President Bush had:

“… yet to find answers to the big questions:

• how to persuade international opinion that military action against Iraq is

necessary and justified;

• what value to put on the exiled Iraq opposition;

• how to co-ordinate a US/allied military campaign with internal opposition …

• what happens on the morning after?”

137 Minute Manning to Prime Minister, 14 March 2002, ‘Your Trip to the US’.

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