The Report of the Iraq Inquiry

147. The JIC Assessment of 27 February concluded that Saddam Hussein saw the

Goods Review List as making sanctions sustainable indefinitely.

148. Saddam Hussein would permit the return of weapons inspectors if large

scale military action was believed to be imminent, but he would seek to frustrate

their efforts.

149. Iraq continued to pursue its WMD programmes; design work for missiles

with ranges greater than the UN limit of 150km was under way and it could

produce chemical warfare agents “within weeks”. The JIC also introduced a new

judgement that, “If it has not already done so, Iraq could produce significant

quantities of biological warfare agents within days”.

150. Without direct intervention on the ground, the opposition would be unable

to overthrow Saddam Hussein’s regime.

151. If he was unable to deter a US attack, Saddam Hussein would “go down

fighting and could adopt high risk options”.

152. At the request of the JIC, an Assessment, ‘Iraq: Saddam Under the Spotlight’, was

produced on 27 February.50 It addressed “Saddam’s threat perceptions and internal

position: whether he is secure, what opposition he faces, and what he is doing to try and

avoid the internal and international threats he faces”.

153. In its discussion of the draft, the JIC concluded that the Assessment should

“put … to one side” the issue of Iraq’s interpretation of US policy as the latter was “itself

developing, and would probably become much clearer to everyone … within the next

few weeks”.51

154. The JIC also decided that the final Assessment:

“… needed to say a bit more about Iraq’s aspirations and potential in terms of

Weapons of Mass Destruction, not least because this was, and would remain, an

important area for policy discussions with the US. The Pentagon’s views on how

soon Iraq might develop a nuclear capability did not quite match the UK’s, and it

would be useful for Ministers to know the JIC’s mind.”52

50 JIC Assessment, 27 February 2002, ‘Iraq: Saddam Under the Spotlight’.

51 Minutes, 27 February 2002, JIC meeting.

52 Minutes, 27 February 2002, JIC meeting.

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