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10.1  |  Reconstruction: March 2003 to June 2004
214.  A public statement made jointly by President Bush and Mr Blair after the meeting
stated that the UN had “a vital role to play in the reconstruction of Iraq”.124
215.  Also on 8 April, Baroness Symons, joint FCO/DTI Minister of State for
International Trade and Investment, met representatives of UK companies to discuss
commercial opportunities in Iraq.125 She made it clear that the UK was “not in this
conflict for business opportunities”, but that UK companies had a great deal of expertise
and knowledge to offer and should be involved in the redevelopment of Iraq, for the
benefit of the Iraqi people.
The MOD’s Red Team
Section 6.5 describes the creation of a small “Red Team” in the MOD Defence Intelligence
Staff (DIS) in February 2003. The Red Team was intended to give the Chiefs of Staff and
key planners in the MOD and Whitehall an independent view of intelligence assumptions
and key judgements, to challenge those if appropriate and to identify areas where more
work was needed.126
The Red Team produced two reports before the invasion (see Section 6.5). Three more
were produced before the Red Team was disbanded on 18 April:
‘What will Happen in Baghdad?’;
‘The Future Governance of Iraq’;
‘The Strands of the Rope’ (an assessment of the steps needed to achieve an effective
Iraqi Interim Administration and hand over to a representative government of Iraq).
On 7 April, the Red Team issued a report on the likely developments in Baghdad in the
days, weeks and months ahead:
“The security apparatus works on fear, not professionalism. With the removal of fear
there may well be a widespread law and order problem. The police are all Ba’ath
members and cannot initially be trusted until the worst Ba’athists are identified and
removed. According to one military interlocutor, the RA [regular army] is the only
respected national institution and could be used for internal security duties, if better
trained and equipped.
“Once Saddam is gone there is likely to be widespread and apparently random
violence between Iraqis. Specific attacks against Coalition Forces are likely to
come later (perhaps some months later) if particular individuals or groups feel they
are being cut out of contracts, administration positions etc. They may then hire
‘submerged’ paramilitary thugs to redress their grievances.”127
124  US Department of State Archive, 8 April 2003, Joint Statement by President George W Bush and Prime
Minister Tony Blair.
125  Minute Allan to PS/Baroness Symons, 8 April 2003, ‘Iraq: Record of Meeting with UK companies’.
126  Minute PS/CDI to various, 25 February 2003, ‘Iraq: Red Teaming in the DIS’.
127  Minute PS/CDI to APS2/SoS [MOD], 7 April 2003, ‘Iraq Red Team – What will Happen in Baghdad?’
attaching Paper DIS Red Team, [undated], ‘What will Happen in Baghdad?’
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