10.1 |
Reconstruction: March 2003 to June 2004
214.
A public
statement made jointly by President Bush and Mr Blair after
the meeting
stated that
the UN had “a vital role to play in the reconstruction of
Iraq”.124
215.
Also on 8
April, Baroness Symons, joint FCO/DTI Minister of State
for
International Trade
and Investment, met representatives of UK companies to
discuss
commercial
opportunities in Iraq.125
She made it
clear that the UK was “not in this
conflict for
business opportunities”, but that UK companies had a great deal of
expertise
and
knowledge to offer and should be involved in the redevelopment of
Iraq, for the
benefit of
the Iraqi people.
Section 6.5
describes the creation of a small “Red Team” in the MOD Defence
Intelligence
Staff (DIS)
in February 2003. The Red Team was intended to give the Chiefs of
Staff and
key
planners in the MOD and Whitehall an independent view of
intelligence assumptions
and key
judgements, to challenge those if appropriate and to identify areas
where more
The Red
Team produced two reports before the invasion (see Section 6.5).
Three more
were
produced before the Red Team was disbanded on 18
April:
•
‘What will
Happen in Baghdad?’;
•
‘The Future
Governance of Iraq’;
•
‘The Strands
of the Rope’ (an assessment of the steps needed to achieve an
effective
Iraqi
Interim Administration and hand over to a representative
government of Iraq).
On 7 April,
the Red Team issued a report on the likely developments in Baghdad
in the
days, weeks
and months ahead:
“The
security apparatus works on fear, not professionalism. With the
removal of fear
there may
well be a widespread law and order problem. The police are all
Ba’ath
members and
cannot initially be trusted until the worst Ba’athists are
identified and
removed.
According to one military interlocutor, the RA [regular army] is
the only
respected
national institution and could be used for internal security
duties, if better
trained and
equipped.
“Once
Saddam is gone there is likely to be widespread and apparently
random
violence
between Iraqis. Specific attacks against Coalition Forces are
likely to
come later
(perhaps some months later) if particular individuals or groups
feel they
are being
cut out of contracts, administration positions etc. They may then
hire
‘submerged’
paramilitary thugs to redress their grievances.”127
124
US
Department of State Archive, 8 April 2003, Joint
Statement by President George W Bush and Prime
Minister Tony
Blair.
125
Minute
Allan to PS/Baroness Symons, 8 April 2003, ‘Iraq: Record of Meeting
with UK companies’.
126
Minute
PS/CDI to various, 25 February 2003, ‘Iraq: Red Teaming in the
DIS’.
127
Minute
PS/CDI to APS2/SoS [MOD], 7 April 2003, ‘Iraq Red Team – What will
Happen in Baghdad?’
attaching
Paper DIS Red Team, [undated], ‘What will Happen in
Baghdad?’
41