17 |
Civilian casualties
the
civilian casualties resulting from the attacks or of the overall
civilian casualties
163.
Also on 8
November, Mr Straw chaired a meeting with FCO officials
including
Mr Creon
Butler, the FCO’s Chief Economist, to discuss the scope of a
Written
Ministerial
Statement that he would make on 17 November, responding to
the Lancet
164.
After the
meeting, Mr Butler sent Mr Straw’s Private Secretary his
“initial thoughts”
on
the Lancet
study.110
Mr Butler
stated that “the statistical methodology appears
sound”
and
concluded:
“In
commenting on the study we should certainly continue to emphasise
the
considerable
uncertainty around the central estimate [of 98,000 excess
deaths]
(reflecting
the small sample size), as well as the lack of corroborating
evidence –
particularly
evidence of injured in the numbers one might expect. We could
also
highlight
some of the factors which might bias the study towards an
over‑estimate of
deaths.
However, there are as many reasons why the study might be biased in
the
other
direction (so probably safer not to go down this
road).”
165.
Mr Butler
stated that the “lack of corroborating evidence” related in
particular to
the
apparent mismatch between the central estimate of 98,000 excess
deaths and the
much lower
estimates based on press reporting and the lack of anecdotal
evidence for
large
numbers of injured Iraqi citizens attending Iraqi hospitals. The
latter mismatch was
“much
harder to explain”.
166.
Mr Butler
considered how the estimates presented in the Lancet
study might
be
validated
and refined using data from other sources. He
concluded:
“In the
absence of a detailed census (impossible in the current
security
environment),
the best way of narrowing down the uncertainty … is likely to be
to
conduct a
similar survey with a significantly larger sample.”
167.
On 9 November,
the MOD sent the Cabinet Office a summary of incident
reports
for MND(SE)
for the seven days up to 7 November, as part of the trial
monitoring
period.111
There had
been no incidents involving civilian fatalities; two civilians had
been
injured in
an (unspecified) accident.
168.
On 11
November, Mr Blair, Mr Straw and Mr Hoon discussed
which department
should be
responsible for work on casualty figures.112
After the
meeting, Mr Straw’s
Private
Secretary asked Sir Michael Jay, the FCO Permanent Under Secretary,
to liaise
108
Minute
Asquith to PS/Straw, 8 November 2004, ‘Iraq: Civilian
Casualties’.
109
Email Owen
to Asquith, 8 November 2004, ‘Iraq: Casualties’.
110
Minute
Butler to PS/Foreign Secretary, 8 November 2004, ‘Counting Iraqi
Casualties’.
111 Letter MOD
[junior official] to Cabinet Office [junior official], 9 November
2004, ‘Civilian Casualties’.
112
Letter
PS/Straw to PS/PUS [FCO], 15 November 2004, ‘Iraq: Casualty
Figures’.
199