The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
with Sir
Kevin Tebbit, MOD Permanent Under Secretary, to secure the MOD’s
agreement
to take on
that responsibility.
169.
At Cabinet on
11 November, Mr Straw told colleagues that he would be
making
a Written
Ministerial Statement on the estimate of civilian casualties
published by
The Lancet, and
that he proposed to make more use of the Iraqi MOH figures,
which
170.
On 12
November, the Iraq Senior Officials Group agreed that there was
“potential
advantage”
in making more use of the Iraqi MOH’s figures, but the UK needed
to
recognise
the presentational difficulties of using those figures while “using
US figures for
internal
planning purposes without publicly acknowledging their
existence”.114
It would
be
useful to
compare the MOH figures with those produced for the Chiefs of Staff
by PJHQ.
171.
Mr Straw
issued a Written Ministerial Statement on 17 November, responding
to
the
Lancet
study.115
Mr Straw
stated that during the period of major combat
operations,
the
Coalition had made every effort to minimise civilian casualties. He
continued:
“Casualties
– civilian and military – which have occurred since major
combat
operations
ended on 1 May 2003 have done so directly as a result of
those
determined
to undermine the political process.”
172.
Mr Straw
rejected the suggestion in the Lancet
study that
there was a legal
obligation
(deriving from Article 27 of the fourth Geneva Convention) for the
MNF‑I to
assess
civilian casualties.
173.
Mr Straw
stated that the UK Government shared the Iraqi Minister of Health’s
view,
expressed
in his 29 October statement, that the MOH’s information was the
most reliable
available.
The “running estimate” provided by IBC “suggested” that between
14,284 and
16,419
Iraqi civilians had died since March 2003. While that was “an
estimate relying on
media
reports, and which we do not regard as reliable”, IBC’s figures did
show that the
Iraqi MOH’s
figures were not the only ones to differ widely from those
presented in the
Lancet
study.
174.
Mr Straw
stated that the methodology used in the Lancet
study had
passed
The Lancet’s
peer review
process and was similar to that used in other cases,
but
questioned
the data that the survey had produced and hence the findings of the
study.
175.
Dr John Reid,
the Health Secretary, sent an assessment of the Lancet
study
to
Mr Straw
on 29 November.116
The
assessment, which Dr Reid said he had personally
113
Cabinet
Conclusions, 11 November 2004.
114
Record, 12
November 2004, Iraq Senior Officials Group.
115
House of
Commons, Official
Report, 17
November 2004, column WS61.
116
Letter Reid
to Straw, 29 November 2004, [untitled], attaching Paper, [undated],
‘Mortality Before and
After the
2003 Invasion of Iraq: Cluster Sample Survey’.
200