17  |  Civilian casualties

149.  On 3 November, Mr Blair told the House of Commons that “we do not accept the

figures released by The Lancet … at all”.101 Mr Blair went on to cite the figures released

by the Iraqi Minister of Health.

150.  The following day, Mr Straw said on Today that “our people are still looking into it

[the Lancet study], the epidemiologists and statisticians”.102 Mr Straw also said that he

would make the Government’s assessment available to Parliament.

151.  An IPU official provided advice to Mr Straw’s Private Secretary on 4 November

on how Mr Straw might respond to Mr Hoon’s letter of 2 November, which had proposed

that the FCO should have responsibility for the issue of civilian casualties.103

152.  In that context, the official reported on the options for producing the assessment

of the Lancet study that Mr Straw had promised to provide to Parliament:

“One option … is that we rely on assessments from the Iraqi Ministry of Health;

another is that we draw on the help of MOD experts. We already have the views

of the MOD Chief Scientific Adviser … It is not a promising start. We are awaiting

a report from the Iraqi Ministry of Health setting out their assessment of civilian

casualties; we believe this will be a better line of response.”

153.  Mr Quarrey passed a transcript of a Newsnight discussion on the Lancet study

to Mr Blair on 5 November.104

154.  Mr Blair commented: “We must get robust lines on numbers killed since the war

and on number of airstrikes.”105

155.  Mr Quarrey wrote to Mr Straw’s Private Secretary on 8 November to confirm that

the FCO should lead on the issue of civilian casualties.106 Mr Quarrey reported that

Mr Blair remained concerned that the UK was not getting across its message about “the

extent of insurgent/foreign terrorist responsibility for civilian deaths”, and that Mr Blair

wanted the FCO to develop a “quicker and more forceful response to claims about

civilian deaths that we regard as unfounded (e.g. the Lancet claims)”.

156.  Mr Dominic Asquith, FCO Director Iraq, advised Mr Straw later that day that he

should challenge that allocation of responsibility.107

157.  Mr Asquith said that MNF‑I produced a daily update on operations which included

details of civilian casualties (killed and wounded). The MOD itself produced the figures

101  House of Commons, Official Report, 3 November 2004, column 301.

102  The Today Programme, 4 November 2004.

103  Minute IPU [junior official] to FCO [junior official], 4 November 2004, ‘Civilian Casualties in Iraq:

Letter to Geoff Hoon’.

104  Minute Quarrey to Prime Minister, 5 November 2004, ‘Iraq: Update’.

105  Manuscript note Blair on Minute Quarrey to Prime Minister, 5 November 2004, ‘Iraq: Update’.

106  Letter Quarrey to PS/Straw, 8 November 2004, ‘Iraq: Civilian Casualties’.

107  Minute Asquith to PS/Straw, 8 November 2004, ‘Iraq: Civilian Casualties’.

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