The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
144.
The study
stated that there had been 53 deaths in the Fallujah cluster when
only
1.4 had
been expected. That indicated that there had been about 200,000
excess
deaths in
Fallujah. However, the uncertainty in that estimate was
“substantial”.
145.
On the same
day, following a discussion with the MOD’s Director of
News,
Professor
Sir Roy Anderson, the MOD’s Chief Scientific Adviser (CSA),
“quickly
reviewed”
the study.97
His Private
Secretary sent his conclusions to Mr Hoon’s
Private
Office and
senior MOD officials:
“CSA has
concluded that the design of the study is robust … He therefore
believes
that the
paper is a sensible one … and that the results are probably as
robust as one
could have
achieved in the very difficult circumstances. He therefore
recommends
that we
should proceed with caution in publicly criticising the
paper.
“He would,
however, add three caveats. First, extrapolation from a very small
sample
size to the
whole of Iraq is a weakness … Second, there are weaknesses in
the
way that
deaths have been recorded … in many cases the only evidence of a
death
having
occurred, and of the cause of death, was the verbal information
provided
from (not
necessarily disinterested) family members. And finally … there
were
excess of
deaths amongst males, possibly indicating that some of those who
died
were
combatants rather than civilians.”
146.
The Iraq
Policy Unit (IPU) sent a copy of the minute to Mr Straw’s
Private Office
147.
The Iraqi
Minister of Health issued a statement on 29 October, offering
his
Ministry’s
own figures of civilian casualties:
“Every
hospital reports daily the number of civilians (which may include
insurgents)
who have
been killed or injured in terrorist incidents or as a result of
military
action. All
casualties are likely to be taken to hospital in these
circumstances
except for
some insurgents (who may fear arrest) and those with minor
injuries.
The figures
show that between 5 April 2004 and 5 October 2004, 3,853
civilians
were killed
and 15,517 were injured. I am satisfied that this information is
the most
148.
The
Lancet
study, and the
interest shown in it by the media and MPs, prompted a
discussion
between Mr Hoon and Mr Straw over whether the MOD or the
FCO should
have
responsibility for the issue of civilian
casualties.100
That
discussion would continue,
between
senior officials, until December.
97
Minute
PS/CSA to MOD Director News, 29 October 2004, ‘Iraqi Civilian
Deaths: Lancet Article’.
98
Minute IPU
[junior official] to PS/Straw, 4 November 2004, ‘Civilian
Casualties in Iraq: Letter to
Geoff Hoon’.
99
House of
Commons, Official
Report, 17
November 2004, column 94WS.
100
Letter Hoon
to Straw, 2 November 2004, [untitled].
196