17 |
Civilian casualties
138.
The official
recalled the limitations of the incident‑reporting process,
and
concluded:
“… if HMG
[Her Majesty’s Government] really does wish to get into the
business of
challenging
media and NGO statistics, we would need to open up discussions
with
the US and
other coalition partners on how to change the incident reporting
process
in order
that – in future – it attributed blame for civilian
killings.”
139.
An FCO
official wrote to the Cabinet Office on the same day, setting out
how the
FCO
intended to contribute to the trial.95
It would
report figures compiled by NGOs and
the media
but not amend them in any way. To do so would suggest that those
NGO and
media
figures had some reliability, when the UK’s public line was that
they did not. Any
amendments
would also make the figures releasable under the Freedom of
Information
Act (which
would come into effect the following year). The FCO
concluded:
“The focus
of our work will instead be on the figures produced by the Iraqi
Ministry
of Health
(MOH) … these too have their limitations. However, we will work
with the
MOH during
the next few weeks to see if these statistics can be
improved.”
140.
On 29 October,
as the Government’s trial monitoring period got under
way,
The Lancet
published a
study by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public
Health
entitled
Mortality
before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample
survey (the
141.
The study was
based on a survey of 988 households in 33 clusters. It
found
that there
had been 98,000 more deaths from all causes in Iraq than expected
in the
18 months
since the invasion (95 percent confidence interval 8,000–94,000)
outside
of
Fallujah. There would be “far more” deaths if data from the
Fallujah cluster were
included.
142.
The study
stated that violence accounted for most of the excess deaths,
that
violent
deaths were “mainly attributed” to coalition forces, and that most
individuals
reportedly
killed by coalition forces were women and children. On the causes
of death,
the study
stated:
“The major
causes of death before the invasion were myocardial
infarction,
cerebrovascular
accidents, and other chronic disorders whereas after the
invasion
violence
was the primary cause of death.”
143.
There had been
an increase in the infant mortality rate, from 29
deaths
per 1,000 live
births to 57 deaths per 1,000 live births.
95
Letter FCO
[junior official] to Cabinet Office [junior official], 28 October
2004, ‘Iraq: Civilian Casualties’.
96
Roberts L,
Lafta R, Garfield R, Khudhairi J and Burnham G. Mortality before
and after the 2003 invasion
of Iraq:
cluster sample survey. The
Lancet 364:
1857-1864 (2004).
195