17 | Civilian casualties

• Civilians who were taken to hospital injured and subsequently died were counted

as injured.

• Hospital staff had come under (unspecified) pressure to inflate casualty figures.

127. The FCO also advised that the Iraqi MOH had publicly estimated that 3,617 Iraqi

civilians had been killed and 14,554 injured in the period from 5 April 2004 to

25 September 2004. An unpublished MOH estimate indicated that of those casualties,

516 had been killed and 2,016 injured in “terrorist attacks”.

128. The FCO reported that the UK’s Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) gave

“a very different estimate” of 1,125 fatalities caused by “foreign fighters” since the

beginning of 2004. Of those casualties, nearly 1,000 were civilians.

129. The FCO concluded that the UK should be “wary” about being drawn into a debate

on which of those figures was accurate. Another unpublished MOH estimate indicated

that 1,295 Iraqi citizens had been killed and 5,479 injured in the period from 16 June

2004 to 10 September 2004 “in military action”:

“This is more than double the number they [the Iraqi MOH] estimate were killed

by terrorists. Although the figures include insurgents as well as civilians, the Iraqi

figures as they stand now will not help us make the case that more civilians have

been killed by terrorists than by military action.”

130. The FCO continued:

“In sum, if we produce a figure that differs from the Iraqi Government figures, we will

have to defend it – and the way it was arrived at – before Parliament and the media

… We recommend that for the moment we continue to put our public emphasis on

specific atrocities against civilians …”

131. Mr David Quarrey, a Private Secretary to Mr Blair, passed the FCO’s advice to

Mr Blair the following day.89 Mr Quarrey commented:

“You asked for an assessment of civilian casualties in Iraq, noting that we cannot let

figures of 10–15,000 go unchallenged as if we are responsible for all of them …

“The FCO recommend that we stick to publicising terrorist responsibility for civilian

casualties in individual incidents. Underlying this is concern that any overall

assessment of civilian casualties will show that MNF [Multi‑National Force – Iraq]

are responsible for significantly more than insurgents/terrorists.

“But we should be able to handle this better …”

132. Mr Quarrey advised Mr Blair that he intended to ask the Cabinet Office to

convene a meeting of departments to initiate a trial period of monitoring daily statistics

89 Minute Quarrey to Prime Minister, 15 October 2004, ‘Iraq: Civilian Casualties’.

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