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16.1  |  The welfare of Service Personnel
were holding up well, but there was already evidence that people were starting to feel
undervalued, particularly over the issue of pay.
126.  Lt Gen Palmer concluded: “Every time we increase the operational load we
increase the risk of a sudden, serious downturn in retention.”
127.  Section 9.2 describes discussions between Mr Blair, Ministers and senior officials
on the deployment of additional troops between late May and mid-June. The extent to
which personnel issues featured in those discussions is not clear.
128.  On 15 June, Mr Blair, Mr Hoon, Mr Jack Straw (the Foreign Secretary),
Mr Hilary Benn (the International Development Secretary), Mr Paul Boateng
(Chief Secretary to the Treasury), Gen Walker and others met to discuss Iraq.85
The meeting concluded that the UK:
“… should not close the door to the possibility of sending further UK troops. We
should keep the option open until around the time of the NATO Summit [28-29 June].
But there was no pressing military reason to send them, nor were we coming under
much pressure from the US to do so.”
129.  On 24 June, Lt Gen Palmer provided an update on his work to develop a
package of welfare measures for Mr Ingram, at his request.86 Lt Gen Palmer advised
that, with only a limited understanding of the relationship between operational tempo,
separation and behaviour, he was taking a “broad view” of potential measures. These
might include new financial incentives for groups under “critical stress”, enhanced
separation allowances, improvements to Service Accommodation and measures to
protect untaken leave.
The decision to deploy troops to Afghanistan
130.  In February 2005, Mr Hoon announced that the UK intended to switch its existing
military effort in Afghanistan (around 1,000 Service Personnel based in northern
Afghanistan) to Helmand province.87
131.  Sir Nigel Sheinwald, Mr Blair’s Foreign Policy Adviser from 2003 to 2007, told the
Inquiry that “this was a proposal … which came from the Chiefs of Staff”.88
132.  The 21 July meeting of the Ministerial Committee on Defence and Overseas Policy
(DOP) agreed in principle proposals presented by Dr John Reid, the Defence Secretary,
for both the transfer to Iraqi control of the four provinces in southern Iraq for which the
UK had security responsibility, and for the redeployment of the UK effort in Afghanistan
85  Letter Rycroft to Baker, 15 June 2004, ‘Iraq: Prime Minister’s Meeting, 15 June’.
86  Minute Palmer to PS/Minister (AF), 24 June 2004, ‘Increased Commitments – Ameliorating the Impact
on People’.
87  Paper MOD, 19 July 2005, ‘Afghanistan: Resources and Strategic Planning’.
88  Public hearing, 16 December 2009, page 93.
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