The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
right, but
it wasn’t that far off. We started from looking at the previous
Iraq war.
My recollection
of it was the British intervention was on a larger scale, but
obviously
there had
been quite a lot of inflation since then and I think we always
assumed
that the
actual conflict itself would cost around £2.5 billion, and that
estimate proved
359.
Sir Nicholas
explained:
“This
wasn’t some private Treasury estimate, we had an interest of
working
very
closely with the Ministry of Defence, the Foreign Office, the
International
Development
Department [DFID] … at that time we could see a scenario where
the
war would
cost something like 6 billion [pounds] and that was looking to the
end of
… 2005/06,
and, again, that’s not hugely wide of the mark.”214
360.
Mr Trevor
Woolley, MOD Director General Resources and Plans from July 1998
to
August 2002
and subsequently MOD Finance Director, told the
Inquiry:
“What we
tended to do was to look at what the expected force level in
theatre was
and to
focus the forecast round the numbers of people who were going to be
out
there [in
Iraq] … But, of course, the reality was sometimes that the force
levels
were
different from those at the time of forecast and, therefore, the
costs would be
different
and, of course, there were some costs that were either greater or
less than
one might
have expected with that level of force level
anyway.”215
361.
The estimates
of military conflict and post‑conflict and non‑military costs which
the
Treasury
provided to Mr Brown on 19 February were reasonably accurate,
given the
major
uncertainties at that point.
362.
Military costs
relating to the conflict totalled some £2.2bn, against an estimate
of
£3.0bn (not
including RAB costs).
363.
Military
post‑conflict costs in 2004/05 were £0.9bn, against an estimate of
£1.0bn.
364.
The UK
allocated £210m and spent £110m on humanitarian assistance in
2003/04,
against the
£100m to £250m range of likely expenditure identified by the
Treasury.
365.
The UK spent
£99m on reconstruction in 2003/04, less than the £100m to
£500m
range
identified by the Treasury. The £99m included a contribution of
£70m to the UN
and World
Bank Trust Funds, which would only be disbursed by the UN and World
Bank
in
subsequent years.
213
Public
hearing, 22 January 2010, page 5.
214
Public
hearing, 22 January 2010, page 3.
215
Public
hearing, 2 July 2010, pages 77‑78.
502