The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
that the US
is compromised by its support for Israel, and false propaganda
about
incidents
in the No-Fly Zones.”
•
“Saddam would
only accept the return of UN weapons inspectors if it
were
accompanied
by the immediate
suspension of sanctions, with a
clear
timetable
for their lift. He would also demand access to oil revenues and
try
to obtain
abolition of the No-Fly Zones.”
•
“For now,
Saddam will avoid measures that would unite the wider Arab
world
against him
and undermine his efforts to build regional economic ties. This
will
further
reduce the risk of military threats to Kuwait or Saudi Arabia. But
he will
seek to
shoot down coalition aircraft in the No-Fly Zones.”
The JIC
stated that while Iraq’s illegal income was increasing, its income
under the OFF
programme
was likely to fall from US$17bn in 2000 to US$14bn in 2001, largely
as a
result of
Iraq’s temporary suspension of oil deliveries under the OFF
programme.
Syria was
now “the largest
purchaser of illicit Iraqi oil” and was
“becoming a more
favoured
route for the supply of military spare parts, telecommunications
equipment
and
chemicals to Iraq”. There was “scope for the illegal trade … to
grow further … in the
medium term
there are plans for a new pipeline and additional road and rail
links”.
Most of
those who dealt with Iraq had not changed their minds about Saddam
Hussein.
He had “no
friends in Saudi Arabia or Kuwait” and he distrusted “both King
Abdullah of
Jordan and
President Bashar [al-Assad] of Syria”. But his strategy was
“to place
Syria
and Jordan
under greater obligation than the west or Gulf States will be
willing to
buy
out”.
The
“widespread renewal of Iraq’s diplomatic contacts” in 2000 had been
extended in
2001 “by a
variety of bilateral and multilateral meetings mainly to develop
economic
relations”.
International flights were continuing with Iraq-based civil
aircraft flying between
Baghdad and
Damascus “three or four times a week” with “a similar number of
foreign
aircraft”
flying “into Baghdad mainly from Russia, Turkey and other Arab
countries”.
“Three
ferries a week” operated “between the UAE, Bahrain and Iraq” which
were “largely
unregulated”.
The JIC
stated that:
“The regime
feels stronger for having an external enemy and the elite is
profiting. All
of Saddam’s
close associates have become $ millionaires through sanctions
breaking
trade
…
“… Saddam
judges his position to be the strongest since the Gulf War.
Although
much of
this is based on regional dependence on illicit oil, the regime is
secure …”
328.
Iranian
support for the British position provided the opportunity for Mr
Blair to
maintain
contacts with President Mohammad Khatami of Iran.180
329.
Mr Blair wrote
to President Khatami on 30 July, thanking him for Iran’s
public
support for
the UK proposals which Mr Blair “… firmly believe[d] … are
necessary to
180
Letter
McDonald to Wechsberg, 24 July 2001, ‘Iran: Letter from the Prime
Minister to President Khatami
on
Iraq’.
254