The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
progress
towards lifting UN sanctions. The JIC stated that it had little
direct intelligence
on Saddam
Hussein’s thinking. It assessed that Saddam Hussein was “content to
drag
out any
decision for as long as possible – at least until after the US
election – he wants
to see if
the West will make a better offer”.
37.
The JIC stated
that Saddam had “good reason to
remain intransigent in 2001”.
38.
The JIC’s Key
Judgements included:
•
Saddam
Hussein felt “little
pressure to negotiate”, because
the proceeds of
oil
smuggling and illegal trade had “increased significantly this year”
and more
countries
were “increasing diplomatic contacts and trade”.
•
Saddam
Hussein still wanted “UN sanctions lifted in due course, especially
to
reverse the
decline in Iraq’s military capability”.
•
A message
from Mr Cook on 1 September to his Arab counterparts,
which
reminded
them that if inspectors were allowed into Iraq sanctions could
be
suspended
within six months, had been interpreted by Iraqi and other
officials,
and the UN
Secretary General, “as a potential precursor to the
UK
offering
fresh
ideas which could be
put to the US after the Presidential election. Even
if this
came to nought, Saddam would hope to see a gap open up
between
Washington
and London.”
•
Saddam
Hussein would “only contemplate co-operation with [resolution]
1284,
and the
return of inspectors to Iraq, if it could be portrayed as a
victory”. He
would not
agree to co-operate unless:
{{there
was a “UN-agreed
timetable for the lifting of sanctions.
Saddam
suspects
that the US would not agree to sanctions lift while he remained
in
power”;
{{he was
“able to negotiate
with the UN in advance to weaken the
inspection
provisions. His
ambitions to rebuild Iraq’s weapons of mass
destruction
programmes makes him hostile to intrusive inspections or
any
other
constraints likely to be effective.”
•
Before
accepting resolution 1284, Saddam Hussein would “try to obtain
the
abolition of
the No-Fly Zones. He is also
likely to demand that the US should
abandon its
stated aim to topple the Iraqi Government.”
39.
Mr Blair told
Parliament on 1 November:
“We believe
that the sanctions regime has effectively contained Saddam
Hussein
in the last
10 years. During this time he has not attacked his neighbours, nor
used
chemical
weapons against his own people.”32
40.
The US
Presidential election was held on 7 November. The result was not
declared
until 12
December, after a recount in Florida.
32
House of
Commons, Official
Report, 1
November 2000, column 511W.
198