The Report of the Iraq Inquiry

1380. On 13 June, Maj Gen Shaw concluded his weekly report to Lt Gen Houghton:

“The thought I leave my staff to ponder is the credibility of our recommendation

at month end if this remains, ‘Basra ready for transition to PIC in Aug/Sep’. The

pragmatic UK PIC judgements have always been based in large part on judgements

about ‘Iraqi good enough’ in agreement with Iraqi judgements on risk. The recent

focus of GoI interest in Basra security has seemingly reversed what was hitherto

Iraqi enthusiasm for PIC. PM Maliki is concerned about early PIC, the Governor is

against it, as is MG Habib: the IPS are recognised as incapable hence the future

of Basra’s security is being placed in a new … army division (as yet unformed and

unprogrammed); and a new security supremo is promised but as yet unappointed

(although rumours abound). Lack of Iraqi enthusiasm for PIC, and the lengthy period

required to enact the Iraqi solutions, play to State’s concerns about the PIC process

and will make my and LTG Odierno’s [Lieutenant General Raymond Odierno, US

Commander Multi‑National Corp ‑ Iraq] desire for Basra PIC harder to justify.”1266

1381. On 27 June, the JIC reiterated their judgement on the likelihood of violence after

PIC and the ability of the Basra ISF to cope:

“The desire for national Shia unity and the ability of local parties to broker deals

may restrain but will not prevent political violence in the South. In the likely event

of serious intra‑Shia fighting the police would probably take sides according to

their particular tribal and militia affiliations and the army would try to remain on

the sidelines.”1267

Three key security personnel in Basra were replaced between March and June 2007:

• Major General Habib was appointed as the new Commander of 10th Division,

replacing Maj Gen Latif.1268

• General Mohan became the head of newly established Basra Provincial Operational

Command, effectively taking overall control of security from Maj Gen Ali Hamadi, who

became his deputy.1269

• Major General Jalil was appointed as Provincial Director of Police, reporting to

General Mohan. Maj Gen Jalil replaced Brig Mohammed Hamadi.

1266 Minute Shaw to CJO, 13 June 2007, ‘GOC HQ MND(SE) – Southern Iraq Update – 13 June 2007’.

1267 JIC Assessment, 27 June 2007, ‘Iraqi Security Forces and Structures: Quantity not Quality’.

1268 Minute Shaw to CJO, 15 March 2007, ‘GOC MND(SE) – Southern Iraq Update – 15 March 2007’.

1269 Minutes, 26 June 2007, Chiefs of Staff meeting.

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