The Report of the Iraq Inquiry

recruited ... Unless we take action against them, they will grow. That is why we

should act.”157

342. The JIC judged in October 2002 that “the greatest terrorist threat in the event of

military action against Iraq will come from Al Qaida and other Islamic extremists”; and

they would be “pursuing their own agenda”.158

343. The JIC Assessment of 10 February 2003 repeated previous warnings that:

• Al Qaida and associated networks would remain the greatest terrorist threat

to the UK and its activity would increase at the onset of any military action

against Iraq.

• In the event of imminent regime collapse, Iraqi chemical and biological material

could be transferred to terrorists, including Al Qaida.159

344. Addressing the prospects for the future, the JIC Assessment concluded:

“... Al Qaida and associated groups will continue to represent by far the

greatest terrorist threat to Western interests, and that threat will be heightened

by military action against Iraq. The broader threat from Islamist terrorists will also

increase in the event of war, reflecting intensified anti‑US/anti‑Western sentiment in

the Muslim world, including among Muslim communities in the West. And there is a

risk that the transfer of CB [chemical and biological] material or expertise, during or

in the aftermath of conflict, will enhance Al Qaida’s capabilities.”

345. In response to a call for Muslims everywhere to take up arms in defence of Iraq

issued by Usama Bin Laden on 11 February, and a further call on 16 February for

“compulsory jihad” by Muslims against the West, the JIC Assessment on 19 February

predicted that the upward trend in the reports of threats to the UK was likely to

continue.160

346. The JIC continued to warn in March that the threat from Al Qaida would increase

at the onset of military action against Iraq.161

347. The JIC also warned that:

• Al Qaida activity in northern Iraq continued.

• Al Qaida might have established sleeper cells in Baghdad, to be activated during

a US occupation.

157 House of Commons, Official Report, 18 March 2003, column 769.

158 JIC Assessment, 10 October 2002, ‘International Terrorism: The Threat from Iraq’.

159 JIC Assessment, 10 February 2003, ‘International Terrorism: War with Iraq’.

160 JIC Assessment, 19 February 2003, ‘International Terrorism: The Current Threat from

Islamic Extremists’.

161 JIC Assessment, 12 March 2003, ‘International Terrorism: War with Iraq: Update’.

48