9.5 |
June 2006 to 27 June 2007
of Iran. If
this is true then the question becomes what happens to the
relationship
between
Iran and those it has been backing.
“Iran is …
backing a number of horses, providing funding to both their
long‑term
partners
Badr/SCIRI and others such as JAM … This would seem to suggest
that
Iran will
still wish to have influence (although not necessarily malign)
through Badr/
SCIRI and
the political process and that JAM is a short term expedient to
cause
trouble for
MNF. Once MNF has departed it is not clear how open SCIRI will
be
to being
run from Iran – are they bought or have they been rented? We
assess
at present
that they have not been bought and that their aspirations for Iraq
are
nationalist
ones …
“With
Muqtada remaining in Iran he is unable to exercise control over
his
organisation
[JAM]. This, along with strikes against JAM in both the north
and
south, all
serves to make the JAM franchise increasingly incoherent.
Perversely,
while this
is partly MNF’s aim, a complete fracturing of the organisation may
not
be in
our interests – you cannot do a deal with chaos! There needs to be
a rump
left of
sufficient size and coherence with which we can pursue
reconciliation.”
717.
On 4 April,
the Iraqi Government announced that Maysan would transfer
to
718.
In a video
conference discussion with President Bush on 5 April, Mr Blair
said
that “there
was some chance of a deal with a more significant proportion of the
Sunni
insurgency
than we had previously been able to reach”.390
He
suggested that the
coalition’s
aim should be to “make common cause” with them against the elements
of
AQ‑I whose
attacks “were the greatest spur to continued sectarian
violence”.
719.
The impact of
the NIIA raid continued to be felt: in early April Dr Safi al‑Safa,
Acting
Justice
Minister, issued a statement demanding a formal apology for the
incident.391
720.
Dr al‑Safa
said that the coalition should “acknowledge that members of
the
Multi‑National
Forces have overstepped their authority, committed a major mistake
and
were
negligent in allowing prisoners to escape”.392
721.
Prime Minister
Maliki’s office responded by saying that Dr al‑Safa’s statement
did
not
necessarily reflect the views of the Iraqi
Government.393
389
eGram
14083/07 Baghdad to FCO London, 4 April 2007, ‘Government of Iraq
Announces Transition
in
Maysan’.
390
Letter
Banner to Hayes, 5 April 2007, ‘Prime Minister’s VTC with President
Bush, 5 April:
Middle East
Issues’.
391
Minute
Jones to Aldred, 12 April 2007, ‘Basra: Weekly
Report’.
392
Global
Policy Forum, 6 April 2007, ‘Iraq Says British Raid Was a
Violation’.
393
Minute
Jones to Aldred, 12 April 2007, ‘Basra: Weekly
Report’.
135