The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
In the UK
General Election of May 2005, Mr Blair’s Labour Party was returned
for a third
Following
the election, Mr Jack Straw remained as Foreign Secretary and Mr
Hilary Benn
remained as
Development Secretary. Dr John Reid was appointed Defence
Secretary,
succeeding
Mr Geoff Hoon, who became Leader of the House of
Commons.
573.
In May 2005, a
note to Dr Reid as incoming Defence Secretary from
Sir Kevin Tebbit,
said:
“Internally,
your immediate focus will be on Iraq and Afghanistan. In Iraq,
the
US-led
coalition’s main effort will this year shift from providing direct
security to
building
the capability and capacity of the Iraqi Security Forces …
significant
reductions
in Coalition force levels (including UK forces) are unlikely to be
possible
until 2006.
This is 6-12 months later than our initial hopes. It inevitably
has
knock-on
consequences for the next planned increase in our military effort
–
expanded
stabilisation operations in Afghanistan – and the size of our force
there.” 317
574.
On 13 May
2005, Dr Reid’s Private Secretary advised Mr Blair’s Private
Secretary
that the
rotation of troops in progress in Iraq would result in an increase
of 435 UK
military
personnel in Iraq.318
This was a
result of UK forces:
“… shifting
their main effort from framework security to security sector reform
… to
create the
conditions to transfer responsibility for provincial security to
the Iraqis
from autumn
this year.”
575.
The Private
Secretary added:
“At this
stage, it is too early to accurately predict the force levels
required for the rest
of 2005,
but the next force level review, which will take place over the
summer, will
provide
greater clarity. This review is expected to report in
September.”
576.
Mr Chaplin’s
valedictory report, dated 16 May, observed that a “certain
gloom
seems to
have descended in London and Washington about prospects for
Iraq”.319
He acknowledged
that there was “certainly plenty of bad news around”, citing the
surge
of violence
that had followed the formation of the new government (around 70
attacks a
day with a
“nasty sectarian tinge to much of the killing”). But, despite
acknowledging that
his own
perspective was limited to what he saw in the “Green Zone”, he
pointed also to:
“… some
encouraging signs … credible Sunni figures in the Cabinet … key
Ministers
look
competent and have been saying all the right things about
delivering results
316
BBC
News, 7 May
2005, Final
election results declared.
317
Minute
Tebbit to Secretary of State, 6 May 2005, ‘Welcome’.
318
Letter
Naworynsky to Quarrey, 13 May 2005, ‘Iraq: UK Roulement and Force
Level Review’.
319
eGram
4529/05 Baghdad to FCO London, 16 May 2005, ‘Iraq: Valedictory:
Still In The Balance’.
486