The Report
of the Iraq Inquiry
“Intimidation
and assassinations will increase as the elections approach.
Sunni
Arabs will
be most susceptible to intimidation, although attacks will not be
confined
to their
areas.”
406.
Whatever the
outcome, the JIC judged that:
“Hard-line
Sunnis will reject any new government and will continue their
campaign
of
violence. Support for them could increase if the election outcome
is perceived as
grossly
unfair. Other Sunnis may be encouraged to turn away from the
insurgency
if the
election produces what they judge to be fair representation in the
Presidency
Council,
Transitional Government and Transitional National Assembly (TNA).
But
any impact
on the security situation will not be immediate.
…
“The
Transitional Government is unlikely to request early MNF withdrawal
but may
try to
insist on a timetable being formally agreed – even before UNSCR
1546 is
reviewed in
June 2005.”
407.
In a video
conference with President Bush on 4 January, Mr Blair said that it
should
be made
clear that it was violence and intimidation preventing people from
participating
in the
elections, not questions about the legitimacy of the
process.214
He hoped
that
the UN
would say publicly that people in Iraq wanted to vote, and should
be allowed to
do so.
408.
On 6 January,
Mr Hoon’s Private Secretary wrote to Mr Blair’s Private Secretary
to
say that
the Defence Secretary would consider over the weekend whether to
deploy the
Cyprus-based
battalion in mid-January to cover the election
period.215
Maj Gen
Riley had
requested
the deployment, and Gen Walker endorsed it.
409.
Following a
request for additional information, Mr Hoon’s Private Secretary
wrote
again to
explain that the additional 400 troops would be used:
“… to free
up fully acclimatised theatre troops from static security tasks,
who can
then be
employed on intelligence-led security operations in support of the
election
214
Letter
Quarrey to Owen, 4 January 2005, ‘Prime Minister’s VTC with
President Bush, 4 January 2005;
Iraq, Iran
and MEPP’.
215
Letter
Naworynsky to Quarrey, 6 January 2005, ‘Iraq: Preparations for the
Elections’.
216
Letter
Naworynsky to Quarrey, 7 January 2005, ‘Iraq: Preparations for the
Elections’.
460