The Report of the Iraq Inquiry

674. Mr Hoon wrote to Mr Blair on 12 January about managing the UK defence capacity

in the year ahead.371

675. Commenting on Mr Hoon’s minute, Mr Straw concluded that “overall I would favour

our investing more in Afghanistan, including deploying the ARRC when the conditions

are right, to ensure we deliver strategic success there. This may be eased by reductions

in Iraq, from next year.”372

676. When Mr Blair and President Bush spoke by video conference on 14 January,

they discussed finding a way forward which would be supported by Grand Ayatollah

al‑Sistani, who was understood to be supportive of a UN role and willing to co-operate

with the Coalition.373

677. At Cabinet on 15 January Mr Straw described the political process as “at a

sensitive stage”.374 The role of elections in establishing transitional arrangements was

causing difficulty between the CPA and Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani. Mr Blair reported that

a conversation with President Bush had suggested that progress was being made in the

contacts between Ambassador Bremer and the Grand Ayatollah.

678. In advance of a meeting between members of the GC and the UN in New York

planned for 19 January, senior US and UK officials agreed their objectives for the UN’s

involvement in the political process.375

679. They hoped that by late February the UN would give an opinion on the possibility

of conducting elections for the TNA. In the event that elections were not possible

they hoped the UN would offer advice on a fully transparent method of choosing

representatives to the TNA, consistent with the timetable set out in the 15 November

Agreement.

680. On 18 January, a suicide attack within the Baghdad Green Zone killed more than

20 people, mostly Iraqi citizens.376 The FCO observed that this showed that “a serious

terrorist threat remains. But underlying trends are encouraging. The number of attacks

against the Coalition recently fell below 150 a week for the first time since September.”

371 Minute Hoon to Blair, 12 January 2004, ‘2004: Managing UK Defence Capacity’.

372 Minute Straw to Blair, 20 January 2004, ‘2004: Managing UK Defence Capacity’.

373 Letter Cannon to Adams, 14 January 2004, ‘Iraq: Prime Minister’s Video-Conference with President

Bush, 14 January’.

374 Cabinet Conclusions, 15 January 2004.

375 Letter Rycroft to Owen, 15 January 2004, ‘Iraq: Sistani, the UN, Elections etc’.

376 Report FCO, 22 January 2004, ‘Iraq: Weekly Update: 22 January 2004’.

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